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| Map of California Counties geology.com |
California. The Golden State. California is looking and feeling a little more golden these days. The state's economy is on the upswing and its voters are a tad more optimistic than voters throughout the rest of the United States. However, Michael Finnegan, in his recent article for the Los Angeles Times titled "'Tale of two Californias': Coastal voters are upbeat on economy while inland resident anxious," tells us that in a recent survey taken by the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times (https://dornsife.usc.edu): this all is sunny in California mood is mostly centered along the upscale coastal counties. The inland counties are more financially anxious. It literally is a "Tale of two Californias."
The survey was conducted by the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times using the online poll SurveyMonkey. Two thousand voters in California and 3,035 across the United States were asked to respond to questions about the state's economic future. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent statewide and 2.5 percent for the national sample.
Voters in the coastal counties expressed more certainty about their personal finances over the next few years. However, the mood grows is more somber in the interior regions: Inland Empire and Central Vally, where less than half expressed positive feelings about the future of their financial situation. The rosier outlook was particularly high in the San Francisco Bay Area where, no surprise, the technology industry's enormous growth has created equally enormous wealth. Mr. Finnegan writes, "Despite the region's much-discussed high cost of living, the share of people in the Bay Area who said they were 'very hopeful' about their own economic futures was double what was in the Central Valley."
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| Central Valley, California agricultural rows visitcentralvalley.com |
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| Sonoma Coast, Gerstle Cove parks.sonoma.net |
According to Christopher Thornberg, founding part of Beacon Economics, ...recent job growth in most inland areas has been strong...However,
The lasting trouble...is that most workers in inland regions are less educated, have fewer job skills and earn lower wages than those along the coast. Mr. Thornberg told Michael Finnegan, We can talk about job growth all we want, but the real issue, I think, is going to be a function of education...This is not about regional economic conditions. This is about high-skill workers versus low-skill workers.
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| Silicon Beach infographic serious startups.com |
The anecdotal evidence supports Christopher Thornberg's claim. Among those surveyed, "..33% of voters with a college education said they were getting ahead financially, while just 13% of those with a high school degree or less said they were. Conversely, just 28% of college-educated voters said they were falling behind financially, but 25% of those with no more than a high school degree said they were sliding backward." The difference outlook was echoed in overall satisfaction: "In coastal regions, 44% of voters were satisfied with California's economy, inland just 30%"
The economic outlooks were also split along party lines. Mr. Finnegan observed, "Democrats were only slightly more likely than Republicans to say they were getting ahead financially-about 1 in 5 Republicans and 1 in 4 Democrats." Regardless of party affiliation, an overwhelming majority of those surveyed said they were able to maintain their standard of living or getting financially ahead. Conversely, 1 in 5 on both sides of the aisle said they were financially falling behind. Independents were more likely to acknowledge they were falling behind. To give you a numeric break down of registered Republicans to Democrats in California: the GOP makes up 28% of the state's voters, Democrats 43.2%, and those who decline to state a preference compose 23.6% of registered voters in the state.
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| Inland Empire map ocular pro.com |
The survey also revealed that Caucasian voters in California were far more pessimistic about the state's overall economic situation than other demographic groups-almost two-thirds expressed dissatisfaction. However, 1 out of 5 African America, Latino, and Asian voters said the state's economy was not doing well. Michale Finnegan suggests, "One reason black and Latino voters may be more satisfied even though they rated their current economic conditions lower is that they were more likely to express hope about the future." Specifically, "Among black Californians, 62% said they were hopeful about their economic futures, and among Latinos, 57% said so." Only 48 percent of Caucasian voters expressed optimism, while the remaining 52 percent were more pessimistic about their financial future. Race aside, women were more downbeat than men about the state's economy. Almost two-thirds of women surveyed expressed a less than golden outlook, while 56 percent of men were less optimistic about their prospects. However, men expressed more hope for brighter personal financial prospects than women.
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| State highway junction Los Angeles, California flickr.com |
Globalization was a big source of stress among California's voters. Mr. Finnegan writes, "Just 23% said they thought it was making their personal financial situation easier; 42% thought it was making it harder." Anxiety about globalization was split along age groups. Approximately half of those surveyed, 50 years or older, said that globalization was putting a strain on their finances. While only a third of younger voters believed that it was straining their personal finances.
Technology was viewed more favorably among voters. The survey revealed "...56% said tech''s increasing importance to the economy had their personal financial situation easier, and just 20% said it had made it harder." The Inland Empire was the sole region were less than half of the vote viewed the technology revolution in a positive light. Overall statewide, voters in the 50 to 64 age bracket were less enthusiastic about technology. One out of four said "...its growing importance to the economy was making their financial harder. The larger number of middle-aged voters saying technology was making their situation harder contrasted with younger voters, who face less of a challenge in adapting to new technologies, and older voters who have largely left the workforce."
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| The foothills above Bradbury in the San Gabriel Valley Photograph by Jonathan P. Bell losangeles.urbdezine.com |
In total, California voters had a more positive view of technology's influence than the rest of the country. The numbers were "...56% said its growing importance was making their personal financial situation easier; nationwide, just 47% felt that way." The wealth generated by the tech industry, for the Bay Area, has provided a demonstratively brighter economic outlook than the majority of state. Michael Finnegan notes, "While 33% of Bay Area voters said they were getting ahead financially, just 17% felt that way in the Central Valley, 18% in the Inland Empire, 20% in Los Angeles County, and 22% in Orange and San Diego counties."
Throughout most of California, 20 percent of voters (1 in 5) stated they were falling behind financially; in the San Francisco area only 14 percent reported they were losing ground. Across the state, 57 percent said they had enough just to continue their standard of living; only 50 percent reported the same in the Bay Area. Although 19 percent of voters across the state said they were optimistic about the future of their personal finances, 24 percent of Bay Area resident shared that view. Dan Schnur told Michael Finnegan, Because you're looking at a sector that is enjoying such great economic success...it's not surprising that the people who live their are much more optimistic about their economic prospects going forward.
Whether or not California lives up to its nickname, "The Golden State," depends on where you live.
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