Blogger Candidate Forum: Walking The Line Between Urban And Rural

Hello Everyone:

It is Wednesday and time for Blogger Candidate Forum.  Blustery conditions in Blogger land has left the trusty laptop and other necessary devices a wee on the dusty side.  Nevertheless, a quick wipe with a dust cloth should take care of it.  Now about the floors?  Alright, enough of the spring weather report, on to today's subject:  urban and rural voters

Los Angeles, California
dornsife.usc.edu

Our world is urbanizing at a rapid rate.  The United Nations estimated that in 2018, 55 percent of the world's population reside in urban areas.  That number is projected to increase to 68 percent by 2050 (un.org; May 16, 2018; date accessed Apr. 10, 2019).  Forecasters predict that by 2050, 87.4 percent of the American population will live in urban areas (statisa.com; date accessed Apr. 10, 2019).  Currently, 82 percent of the American population live in urban areas (Ibid).  Should Democrats spend more time on their urban, college educated base or rural, non-college educated voters?  What does it mean for the 2020 Presidential Election?  For that answer, we have to take a look back at the 2018 Midterms.

Voter distribution in the 2018 House of Representatives
brookings.edu

The "blue wave" of 2018 heralded a shift in voting patterns that will have implications for the 2020 Presidential Election.  William H. Frey, Senior Fellow at the Metropolitan Program, writes, "...the Democratic wave is all encompassing: 83 percent of the voting population lived in counties where support for Democrats has improved since 2016.... It occurred in suburbs, smaller metropolitan and rural counties, and most noticeably, in counties with concentrations of older, native-born and white residents without college degrees" (brookings.edu; Mar. 4, 2019; date accessed Apr. 10, 2019).

Democrats have traditionally done well in urban counties, while Republicans found favor in the suburbs, small metropolitan areas, and rural communities.  In the 2016 elections "urban core counties in large metropolitan area exhibited strong positive D-R margins, while small metropolitan and outside metropolitan area counties showed negative...D-R margins.  Yet there was a shift between the 2016 and 2018 for suburban counties in large metropolitan areas from a negative to a positive D-R margin....the D-R margin became more positive in large urban cores and less negative for counties outside large cores and suburbs" (Ibid).  While the numbers skew Democrat, challengers for the nomination need to walk the fine line between pursuing an urban and rural agenda.

The Crest Motel
Bristol, Virginia
washingtonpost.com

The midterms laid bare the fact that Democrats may not be doing enough to attract rural voters.  If Iowa voting results are any indication, the answer is mixed.  While Republicans held on to the governorship and gained two seats in the state senate, they lost five seats in the Iowa House of Representatives.  Outside of Iowa, Democrats have been hemorrhaging rural voters since the 2000 Presidential Election, when former Vice President Al Gore won the state Mississippi by less than 5,000.  In 2016, Mr. Donald Trump won the st ate by 12,772 votes (desmoinesregister.com; Dec. 17, 2018; date accessed Apr. 10, 2019), thus proving that counties with a greater number of college educated voters tend to skew Democrat, which begs the question, moving forward what is a Democratic candidate for the presidential nomination to do?  Double down on the urban, Democratic base or refocus on rural, non-college educated swing voters?

The answer is both.
 
Democrats must continue to campaign on the issues that are important to their base like affordable accessible healthcare that protects people with pre-existing conditions.  They also need to go to the places where rural voters are: the coffee shops, living rooms, and pizza restaurants.  This was one of the failings of the Clinton-Kaine campaign, not going to voters in the small towns.  Further, Democrats need to talk about rebuilding the rural economy and one is bringing back manufacturing jobs.

Raising corn and beans in Iowa is one thing but those crops should have some value to them before they leave the bucolic fields.  Jeff Link suggests turning them into ethanol.  He wrote, "Ethanol as well as emerging technologies in bio-based product production can bring manufacturing back to small towns that desperately need better-paying job opportunities" (Ibid).  Makes sense when you think about it because converting corn and beans into ethanol accomplishes two things: First, it creates jobs in the emerging green economy.  Second, it helps regenerate small towns that are experiencing depopulation.  Further, expanding broadband into rural communities brings the very high tech jobs that one would normally find in larger areas. 

Of course it remains to be seen which of the Democratic nomination candidates will pitch these innovative proposals and most important, come up with sound policy to back it without sounding too wonkish or elitist.  Will there be a candidate who can walk the line between urban and rural voters?  Time will tell.