Blogger Candidate Forum: Back From The Dead

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Hello Everyone:

It is Wednesday and time for The Blogger Candidate Forum, post-the Super Tuesday edition.  Before we get started on our wrap up of the biggest voting day, thus far, a quick reminder.  There are still more primary races and the Big One in November.  If you have not registered to vote, stop reading and go to usa.gov, register to vote, and come back to read the post.  If you are a registered, good for you.  Make sure you cast your ballot.  Now then, what happened last night?

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Rumors of VPOTUS Joe Biden's (D-DE) demise are premature.  The #Joementum is building for the former vice president.  Following his slam dunk victory in the South Carolina primary last weekend, the big question was whether the victory was a harbinger of things to come or just a one-off event?  Tuesday answered that question with a roar.  As of writing, VPOTUS won ten out of the fourteen states holding primaries.  Ballots in California, The Candidate Forum's home state, are still being counted but Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has the lead.  Now the question becomes can VPOTUS sustain the momentum going forward all the way to the Democratic National Convention this summer or will The Gentleman from Vermont stop him?

cnbc.com

VPOTUS's primary romp restored him to front runner status after dismal outings in Iowa and New Hampshire, where The Gentleman from Vermont established himself as the one to beat.  However voters in the southern states, a key geographic region, Maine and Massachusetts, came out for VPOTUS.  Yet, Senator Sanders won Colorado, Utah, Vermont, and California, where his populist message had better traction.  The big surprises of the night were VPOTUS's wins in Texas, Massachusetts, and Minnesota, where it seemed like just days ago (literally) he was trailing The Gentleman from Vermont.  Clearly the empire struck back.

logolynx.com

 Niall Stanage reports "Sanders's supporters have argued for some time that he is the kind of disruptor the nation needs.  Voters, they insisted, would rally to his outsider appeal, having become disenchanted with the Democratic establishment" (thehill.com; Mar. 4, 2020).  That theory did not exactly hold up well.  The establishment proved to be a more resilient and disciplined operation than anyone could have possibly believed, not that it inspired much confidence in recent history.

When Senator Bernie Sanders first ran for the nomination in 2016, he was seen as an outlier.  In the intervening years, he has had time to build a stronger base through greater outreach.  Thus when he declared his candidacy again in 2019, the Democratic National Committee establishment shuddered at the prospect of the Gentleman from Vermont facing off with the president in November.  It seemed like all the DNC officials could do was wring their hands and try stumble all over themselves to find the "right" moderate candidate to stop the self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist.  Once VPOTUS came back from the proverbial dead to win South Carolina, the centrists quickly rallied around him at warp speed.

Major figures from the Clinton-Obama past like former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and former American U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice went public with their endorsements.  However, there was something else, call it the X-Factor.  Niall Stanage writes, "Looking at the Super Tuesday results, it appears that Democratic voters are not anywhere as alienated from their party establishment as Republicans were when they propelled then-candidate Donald Trump to the nomination in 2016" (Ibid).  VPOTUS is a familiar face, stretching back before the Obama presidency, learned in the ways of Washington, thus less of a revolutionary than the Gentleman from Vermont.  This may be VPOTUS's biggest selling point after three-plus years of chaos.  Honestly, there is a kind of comfort that comes with VPOTUS.  A certain reassurance that comes with familiarity.  We will see if that can overcome voters' rightfully critical interrogations of VPOTUS's congressional record.  Another critical factor in VPOTUS's big night was endorsements.

towleroad.com

   In the days following the South Carolina Primary, VPOTUS went all out and got some crucial help.  First, House of Representatives Whip James Clyburn's (D-SC) decision to endorse VPOTUS Joe Biden before the South Carolina was the spark that lit the Biden comeback.  Within hours (literally) of abysmal results, both Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttiigieg dropped out of the race and lined up behind VPOTUS.  Former Texas Representative Beto O'Rourke (D), soon announced his endorsement of VPOTUS.  The endorsements of the Lady from Minnesota and the Gentleman from Texas helped VPOTUS win the respective states.  Earlier today, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced he was dropping out of the race, after spending $500 million (Ibid) on advertising and only winning the American Samoa Caucus.  He, too, is endorsing VPOTUS and this is huge because Mayor Mike has a seemingly endless fundraising infrastructure that could increase outreach and turn out.

commondreams.org

Senator Bernie Sanders hoped for a triumphant Super Tuesday but was sorely disappointed.  Yes, he won California, the state with the biggest delegate count, but lost Texas, the second biggest prize; Oklahoma and Minnesota, state he won four years ago.  His victory in California is evidence that the Gentleman from Vermont will remain competitive and the race has narrowed to him and VPOTUS.  Losing Texas, after he predicted victory, was serious blow to his campaign and underscore just how many Democrats are not confident in the Gentleman from Vermont as the nominee. 

VPOTUS's southern victories highlighted another glaring problem--the Gentleman from Vermont's ability to win over African American voters.  Niall Stanage writes, "Biden's victories across the South sharpen questions about the Vermont senator's ability to win over black voters--a weakness that doomed him against Clinton 2016" (Ibid).  Senator Sanders could still become the party standard bearer in November but the less-than stellar Super Tuesday results dealt an unexpected gut punch and it remains to be seen if the Sanders campaign can recover.

apicciano.commons.gc.cuny.edu

Mayor Mike, what happened?  For months the former Mayor of New York City was the stealth candidate, using his vast fundraising infrastructure for media and online ad buys.  When he finally made his debate stage debut, it was an unmitigated disaster.  He got chewed up and spit out in little pieces by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).  Mayor Mike fared a little better in his second debate but the damage was done.  So how did Mayor Mike do once he finally faced the voters?  The short answer is mediocre.

Despite posting decent numbers in some states, his best finishes were in states with minor contests, like American Samoa and might come in second once all the votes in Utah are counted.  Not exactly enough of a reason to continue the campaign.  The final nail in his presidential aspirations' coffin was VPOTUS's double-digit win in South Carolina, making him once again a viable candidate and reducing Mayor Mike's bandwidth.  Niall Stanage observes, "Bloomberg's campaign was always an uphill climb, given how blatantly he was seeking to buy the nomination" (Ibid).  Sorry Mayor Mike, the nomination is something you have actually work for.

Right now, the Lady from Massachusetts must be asking herself if her campaign for the Democratic nomination is worth continuing or not.  Senator Warren entered the race with so much promise and a plan for everything.  Her rallies were events, complete with a selfie line.  On the debate stage she held her own.  However once the primaries started, she consistently under performed, including a stinging third place finish in her home state and fourth place in other contests.  A Warren campaign aide spoke to The Hill, saying "the Massachusetts senator would be talking to her team to assess the path forward  on Wednesday" (Ibid).  Code for pending withdrawal.

Senator Warren's withdrawal is something the Sanders campaign is anxious for because it would give them the opportunity to consolidate the progressive voters (Ibid).  Prior to Super Tuesday, the Lady from Massachusetts was keen on the idea of staying in the race all the way to the Convention this summer.  Now there seems to be no point anymore.  Pity.