| Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) rollingstone.com |
It is a May gray Wednesday and time for Blogger Candidate Forum. What to make of a trade war between the United States and the People's Republic of China? Good for both countries, just the United States, just China? One thing is certain, no in the White House seems to have a clue how to deal with American farmers and workers who are dealing with the fallout of tit-for-tat tariffs. That might be something for the next president, whoever he or she may be, to deal with. This brings us to today's subject.
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| Who is running for president, so far youtube.com |
| Who? newswest9.com |
Right now, the 23 candidates for the Democratic nomination are trying out policies and slogans to see what works before going into the caucuses and primaries, beginning in January. That may seem far away but the prudent candidate will have a solid message ready before January. The problem is all the candidates appear to have similar messages: universal healthcare, regulations to curb climate change, reduce inequality, improve life for the American middle class. These are all very popular policy issues but really, to paraphrase James Carville, it's the economy. It is hard to sell policy issues like reducing income inequality when members received a nice tax refund and pay raise.
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| Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) politico.com |
The president has an amazing gift for not quite burning through the prosperity he inherited. For all of the ill-conceived trade wars and regular assaults on financial regulation, strangely, he has managed to strengthen the recovery begun under President Barack Obama by passing giant fiscal stimulus and forcing the Federal Reserve into easing up on rate hikes (nymag.com; Apr. 29, 2019; date accessed May 15, 2019). All expansions, like good things, must come to an end. "Global growth is slowing, much of corporate America looks over-leveraged [cnbc.com; Nov. 21, 2018; date accessed May 15, 2019] and the stimulative impact of the Trump tax cuts are starting to fade...." (nymag.com; Apr. 29, 2019). When the Federal Reserve backed off interest rate increases earlier this year, the leading stock market indicators rallied to greater heights, while gross domestic product growth has remained consistent, and unemployment remains at a historic low, prompting analysts to downgrade the risk of imminent recession (Ibid). Be that as it may, a lot can happen between now and November 2020 and whoever the Democratic candidate is may have to face a president at the helm of the longest uninterrupted period of growth. What does a Democratic candidate do.
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| Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) theatlantic.com |
A Democratic candidate needs a robust national message. Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster told Politico,
We don't really have a robust national message right [on the economy]...We will tend to talk about things like paid leave and equal pay--and those things are all very popular policies. But they don't add up to an economic messages that is robust enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who talks about a very robust economic policy (politico.com; Apr. 28, 2019; date accessed May 15, 2019)
The Democrats inability to focus is largely due to the expansive field but may be curable once the nominee is chosen, Every top tier candidate has spoken about a significant parts of the economy from income inequality to the cost of higher education. The more progressive candidates are advancing broader concerns for a fairer economy. California Senator Kamala Harris told the Service Employees International Union forum in Las Vegas, We have an economy in this country that is not working for working people (Ibid). At the same event, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) succinctly put it, Let's make the zillionaires pay a fair share (Ibid)
We don't really have a robust national message right [on the economy]...We will tend to talk about things like paid leave and equal pay--and those things are all very popular policies. But they don't add up to an economic messages that is robust enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who talks about a very robust economic policy (politico.com; Apr. 28, 2019; date accessed May 15, 2019)
The Democrats inability to focus is largely due to the expansive field but may be curable once the nominee is chosen, Every top tier candidate has spoken about a significant parts of the economy from income inequality to the cost of higher education. The more progressive candidates are advancing broader concerns for a fairer economy. California Senator Kamala Harris told the Service Employees International Union forum in Las Vegas, We have an economy in this country that is not working for working people (Ibid). At the same event, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) succinctly put it, Let's make the zillionaires pay a fair share (Ibid)
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| VPOTUS Joe Biden nytimes.com |
good, specific ideas for certain sectors of the economy that have been put forward, [labor organizers still] are looking for a comprehensive response on the economy (Ibid).
According to Ms. Henry, the real challenge for Democrats is to
unpack that the economy is working for the few [while] the overwhelming majority of Americans, they're working two or three jobs and can't make ends meet (Ibid)
In absence of an economic slowdown, the president is benefiting from largely positive numbers that the Democrats have having difficulty undermining. "According to a recent CNN poll, 71 percent of Americans rate the nation's economic conditions favorably" (Ibid). On this issue, the president's otherwise grim approval ratings remain steadily above 50 percent.
Matt Bennett of the center-left organization Third Way told Politico,
Our view is that Democrats would be very wise to recognize how steep the mountain is on the economy,... There are things about this economy that very popular--low unemployment, a lot of jobs, there's been some real wage increase. We attribute zero, zero percent of that to good Trump policy... But he will claim credit, as he does for the sun rising and everything else, and we have to be aware that that could be potent. (Ibid)
Mr. Bennett distilled the matter,
What that means is that we need a very clear economic narrative that resonates deeply with voters that we have to win, and we better not be caught up in our own blue bubble world. (Ibid)
An obvious reference to the rhetorical position then candidate-Trump found himself in during the 2016 election cycle. Then candidate Hillary Clinton kept pointing to unemployment and wage growth as indicators of a strong economy under the tenure of a Democratic president while Mr. Trump discounted the positive economic data.
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Now, the economic message landscape is reversed, the data the president dismissed as fraudulent is being used by him to taut robust economic message while the Democrats are trying to argue that the data is not fully appreciated. Sara Nelson, the international president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA summed up the challenge for "Democrats ahead of 2020 is to focus on what people are actually experiencing. (Ibid).
This is not rocket science and if they can do that, then people are going to change their mind about how they connect Trump to this economy (Ibid). If whoever the nominee is can focus his or her message on the present, then it is gold.
We will continue to look at what campaign the Democrats have to put forward to connect with voters. Spoiler alert: impeachment and removal from office is not one of them.
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