Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Blogger Candidate Forum: New Hampshire



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nbcnews.com

Hello Everyone:

It is Wednesday and time for The Blogger Candidate Forum, the first Primary 2020 edition.  Before we get started, have you registered to vote or updated your voter information yet?  No? Stop reading, go to usa.gov, register to vote right now, then come back and read the post.

  Did you feel the Bern?  Oh for Pete's sake, did you vote for former VPOTUS Joe Biden (D-DE)?  Maybe you prefer the Minnesota nice of Senator Amy Klobuchar?  Did you pinkie swear with Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)?  While you are groaning over the election humor, let us take a look at what happened last night in the New Hampshire primary.  The big news, New Hampshire held an election, counted the votes, and the person with the most votes won.  Iowa did you pay attention?  Yes?  Good.  Onward.

The New Hampshire Primary was all about Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT).  The Gentleman from Vermont was a repeat winner of The Primary with Mayor Peter Buttigieg (Boot/edge/edge) (D-IN) coming a close second.  The big surprise was the Lady from Minnesota.  Senator Klobuchar (Klo/bu/shar) came in third, the Lady from Massachusetts, and VPOTUS came in a distant fourth.  With this victory, the Gentleman from Vermont cemented his status as the front-runner with his poll numbers and fundraising far ahead of his rivals.  However, he should not get too comfortable because Mayor Pete tied Senator Sanders in the delegate count giving him a tiny edge in the overall delegate count.

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vox.com

The Lady from Minnesota surprised everyone with a strong third place finish.  More important, Senator Klobuchar made the contest for the moderate vote a two-person race between her and Mayor Pete.  At her post-election party, Senator Klobuchar, with a swipe at the pundits, told the excited crowd,

...Tonight in New Hampshire, as everyone had counted us out even ago--thank you, pundits--I came and came back and we delivered.... And man, were we at the debate in New Hampshire (cnn.com; Feb 12, 2020)

With her campaign's surge in momentum, the Lady from Minnesota can confidently campaign in Nevada and South Carolina, states that mirror what the United States looks like now.  The surge in momentum is exactly what her campaign has been looking for the past year.  It also means that interest in female candidate on the ticket is strong and Senator Klobuchar's moderate and pragmatic policies may be what voters are looking for. 

Her strong debate performance, last Friday, combined with her strong finish on Tuesday means more donations that will enable the Klobuchar campaign to finally set up a solid organization in Nevada and South Carolina.  The Lady from Minnesota will need a strong organization in those states where winning over LatinX and African American voters will be essential to securing the nomination, something that has eluded her.  Savoring the moment, the Lady from Minnesota told her supporter,

We are on to Nevada,... because the best is yet to come! (Ibid)

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commondreams.org

The big news of the night was the repeat victory of Senator Bernie Sanders from the neighboring state of Vermont.  The Gentleman from Vermont and his campaign got what they came for: the solid victory he came within millimeters of in Iowa.  With the victory comes a likely fund raising boost and off to Nevada were he is a favorite to win.

He won the New Hampshire primary in 2016, besting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 22 percentage points (Ibid).  This time the margin of victory was much smaller, in a nine-person field.  With 95-percent of the precincts checking in, the Gentleman from Vermont received 25.7 percent of the vote with Mayor Pete nipping at his heels with 24.4 percent and the Lady from Minnesota capturing a surprising 19.8 percent of the vote (npr.org; Feb. 11, 2020; date accessed Feb. 12, 2020; updated this morning).

The Sanders campaign is taking a hard look at the margin of victory and the Lady from Minnesota's success; realizing that the moderate wing is not going to roll over and rally behind their candidate any time soon.  The silver lining is the Gentleman from Vermont stands benefit from the fact that moderate voters have not rallied around a candidate yet--yet being the operative word.  Looming in the horizon is the specter of former New York City Michael Bloomberg, who has been quietly spending his billions on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020, and deeper splintering of Senator Sanders' opposition is may be on its way.

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abcnews.go,com

Mayor Peter Buttigieg's campaign got what it wanted from the New Hampshire primary, a close second with the Sanders campaign.  A campaign celebration Tuesday night, Mayor Pete invoked the state's motto telling his enthusiastic
supporters,

Here in a state that goes by the motto, 'Live Free or Die, you made up your own minds, you inserted that famous independent streak, and thanks to you, a campaign that some said shouldn't be here at all, has shown that we are here to stay (cnn.com; Feb 12, 2020).

The strong second place showing follows the Iowa State Democratic Party, caucus chaos notwithstanding, declared Mayor Pete the recipient of the most national delegates from the state.  It also validates his ability to weather attacks from his rivals, which happened repeatedly in last Friday's debate, and is consistent contrast to the Sanders revolution resonated with moderate voters (Ibid).  In a new line added to his campaign speech, Mayor Peter was direct,

Vulnerable Americans do not have the luxury of pursuing ideological purity over an inclusive victory (Ibid)

Like Senator Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete has an uphill battle to the nomination ahead as the candidates head into Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.  For month the Buttigieg campaign has been arguing that the best way to win over LatinX and African American voters, voter demographics he has struggled with, is to win or be competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire.  As the contest moves onto the next round, his campaign will get an opportunity to put this theory to the test.  As Mayor Pete said today on the CNN program New Day,

...we've got more work to do to demonstrate the breadth of our support (Ibid).

Image result for new hampshire primary: Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren
people.com
  
What happened to VPOTUS Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren?  Both campaigns are struggling to figure out the answer to that question in the wake of falling short of the 15 percent threshold to win delegates in New Hampshire, finishing fourth and fifth respectively (Ibid).  The candidates' immediate response was yes, it looks bad but onward to Super Tuesday.

Never one to back down from fight, the Lady from Massachusetts took shots at VPOTUS over an advertisement targeting Mayor Pete and the Gentleman from Vermont, complaining that the,

...fight between factions in our party had taken a sharp turn in recent weeks... These harsh tactic might work if you're willing to burn down the rest of the party in order to be the last man standing.  They might work if you don't worry about leaving our party and our politics worse off than how you found it.  They might work if you think only you have all the answers and only you are the solution to all problems.... (Ibid)

Senator Warren continued,

...But if we're going to beat Donald Trump in November, we are going to need huge turnout within our party, and to get that turnout, we will need a nominee that the broadest coalition of our party feel they can get behind.  We can't afford to into factions.  We can't afford to squander our collective power.  We will win when we come together (Ibid)

Meanwhile, VPOTUS was already in South Carolina, insisting that African American voters who supported in the past, are being ignored by the current nomination process, which started in two nearly all white states: Iowa and New Hampshire. VPOTUS' campaign might not have known that a single digit bringing-up-the rear finish was coming but it did know that VPOTUS Joe Biden was in for another disappointing night.  Disappointing especially for a candidate whose calling card was electability.  Ever the optimist, VPOTUS told his cheering supporters via video conference that he was confident of a victory in South Carolina.  We will see.

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Andrew Yang and Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO)
wsav.com

Finally, last night we said goodbye and thanks for the memories to tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Colorado Democrat Senator Michael Bennet.  Mr. Yang's supporters, the Yang Gang, had a fantastic social media and fund raising game.  Mr. Yang's agenda was anchored on a $1,000 universal basic income--"freedom dividend."  Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick is on the verge of dropping out of the race.  Yes, he declared himself a candidate but barely registered in the polls.

We have a break until Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.  The Candidate Forum's home state of California will be casting its vote.  Will the Gentleman from Massachusetts win the state with the biggest delegate prize or will it be Mayor Pete and the Lady from Minnesota? Can VPOTUS and the Lady from Massachusetts make a comeback?  Stay tuned  



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