Blogger Candidate Forum: What Comes Next

Scene from the House of Representatives impeachment debate
usatoday.com

Hello Everyone:

It is Wednesday, or for the die hard among you, Impeachment Day.  Depending on your outlook, you are either celebrating or furious.  Either way, the Blogger Candidate Forum is here to try make sense of it all.

In The Federalist (congress.gov; date accessed Dec, 18, 2019), No. 65, Alexander Hamilton wrote that impeachment is a method of nation inquest into the conduct of public men [accused of violating the] public trust (senate.gov; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019).  Impeaching and removing a member of the executive branch, federal judge, or member of Congress is one of the two solemn duties the Constitution grants the legislative branch--the other one being authorizing war.  The process is twofold: Article I, Section 2 of The Constitution, authorizes the House of Representatives the sole Power of Impeachment (history.house.gov; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019) and Section 3 gives the Senate the sole Power to try all impeachments (Ibid) of federal officers.  The procedure works as follows: "the House serves in the role of a grand jury bringing charges against an officer suspected of Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors [Article II, Section 4]" (Ibid)

The United States Constitution
archives.gov

Since the House initiates the procedure, it also appoints impeachment mangers whose jobs are to effectively act as advocates, in the Senate, on behalf of the House.  In the 20th century, the preferred method of choosing managers is by House resolution, "naming the number and the persons of the committee of managers" (Ibid).  In certain cases, the House, via resolution, setting the number and the persons, authorizing the Speaker to appoint them.  The managers can also be elected by the full house (Ibid).  The House Judiciary Committee has been given jurisdiction over potential impeachments.  Recent impeachments have included articles of impeachment resolution and managers have typically come from this committee.

Once the articles of impeachment are passed by a full House vote, the matter moves on to the Senate for a trial.  The Senate acts as the High Court of Impeachment in which the full senate (all 100 members) quietly listen to evidence and witness testimony, then decide whether to acquit or convict a federal officer, member of the executive branch, or member of Congress.  If 67 out of the 100 members of the Senate vote to convict, the official must resign immediately and may be disqualified from holding future office.  There is no appeal (Ibid).  Only two presidents have faced trial in the Senate: Presidents Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.  President Richard Nixon resigned in September 1974 ahead of facing impeachment and removal over his role in Watergate. President Johnson was eventually acquitted and voted out of office in the next election and President Clinton was termed out however, Mr. Donald Trump is facing re-election.

Trump rally
nbcnews.com

Facing re-election and trial in the Senate is probably not something that the Trump campaign is looking forward to.  Theoretically, the president could coast toward a second term on the strength of a good economy.  Theoretically speaking, of course.  However, we are talking about a president who traffics in divisive rhetoric and smashing institutional norms, alienating enough people that re-election may not be a slam dunk.  Democrats facing re-election and the remaining nominee candidates have even trickier road to navigate.

Ahead of today's vote, House Republicans warned their Democrat counterparts that they were making a grave political mistake by impeaching a president on hearsay evidence.  The heated debate before the final vote underscored the growing pressure Democrats face to prove they made the right choice to pursue an impeachment investigation over the president's conduct with Ukraine (pbs.org; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019).

vox.com

Polls show (realclearpolitics.com; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019) voters divided on impeachment, with half of the country supporting removal and the other half opposed to it.  Democratic voters in key primary and general states (i.e. swing states) have expressed hesitation over the impeachment investigation and how it would affect the party during next year's election cycle.


Iowa Democratic activist running for a state Senate seat outside of Des Moines told PBS,

Joe Logan, the president of the Ohio Farmers Union, said that worries over the economy and trade overshadow the now completed impeachment debate.  He said, "If Democrats had hoped to sway some independent and moderate Republicans to abandon Trump, that effort has largely failed,..." (pbs.org; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019). Rather,

People who are predisposed to support President Trump will certainly disregard this impeachment and it won't make much difference (Ibid)

Breaking News 5:28 pm Pacific Standard Time: Donald Trump becomes the third U.S. president to be impeached on abuse of power.

Yes, the hearings have produced some very viral moments but if there is a lesson to be learned about how to sway moderate Republicans and independents, Democrats should pay attention to the completed British General Elections.  The biggest lesson was trust the polls.  As hard as it may seem, but the biggest lesson from the Conservative Party's landslide victory is numbers do not lie.
Breaking News 5:55 pm Pacific Standard Time: the second article of impeachment, Obstruction of Congress, is adopted in a vote along party line.  This triggers a trial in the Senate expected to begin in January.

Let us look at the average of polls (theguardian.com; Dec. 12, 2019; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019) for each of the four parties with ten seats or more in the House of Commons.  The average of the final polls before the election was: Conservatives winning 43 percent of the vote; Labour 33 percent; the Liberal Democrats 12 percent; and the Scottish National 4 percent (cnn.com; Dec. 14, 2019; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019).  The actual result (Ibid; Dec. 12, 2019) was Conservatives 43.6 percent; Labour 32.2 percent; Liberal Democrats 11.6 percent; the Scottish Nationals 3.9 percent.  In short, each of these parties finished within one percent of its final poll vote share (Ibid; Dec. 14, 2019).

Another lesson from the British General Elections is Prime Minister Boris Johnson's campaign message was simple "Get Brexit Done," similar to the message the Republicans used in 2016, "Make America Great Again."  A short and simple overarching message that he was able to tie every talking point to.  The Labour party, under Jeremy Corbyn, talked about everything else except Brexit.  When he did address the issue, his solution was de facto second referendum, get a deal passed by Parliament and put it to the people for a referendum.  Thus the takeaway for the Democrats in standing for election, is create an overarching message that you can tie everything to.  This is how you get to be president.

What comes next?  Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has decide whether to delay transmitting the now approved articles of impeachment to the Senate in order to force Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) to conduct a trial on more favorable Democrat terms (washingtonpost.com; date accessed Dec. 18, 2019).  This is a tactic advocated by Harvard Law professor and former member of the House Judiciary Committee Laurence H. Tribe, who argued that the public has a right to observe a meaningful trial rather than simply learn the result is a verdict of not guilty (Ibid).  This means calling witness, including key administration figures, and entering documents into the records as evidence.  The idea has legs among the House leadership but as always, Speaker Pelosi will act when the time is right.