Blogger Candidate Forum: Now What?

Hello Everyone:

It is a very warm Wednesday and Blogger Candidate Forum is hiding out from the heat.  The race to be the Democratic nominee is being to tighten up.  The next round of debates is coming and will only be one night, ten candidates.  The good news is that it will focus on the environment and the candidates will have longer to speak.  Should be interesting.  Keep your eyes on Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who have made climate change a major campaign issue.  Onward

Brexit
spectator.co.uk

 Every once in a while The Candidate Forum needs a reminder that other countries' government are just as dysfunctional, if not more, as the current United States' government.  What country is The Candidate Forum referring to, you may ask?  The picture on the left should give you a huge hint.  Great Britain, of course and today's subject is the shambolic state of Brexit.

 The idea sounded good: hold a national referendum on whether Great Britain should leave the European Union or not.  Yes or no; stay or leave?  The vote was close and "Leave" won by 52 percent.  Then came the hard part, figuring out a plan to soften the separation.  Over three later, it is one way or another, deal or no deal, Great Britain is leaving the European Union, at least to Prime Minister (for now) Boris Johnson.  Why would the British leave the European Union in the first place?

Ready or not here it comes
theguardian.com

Why leave indeed?  The first reason has to do with economics.  The Leave campaign argued that "The EU failed to address the economic problems that had been developing since 2008...for example, 20% unemployment in southern Europe" (forbes.com;  July 5, 2016; date accessed Sept. 4, 2019). For the sake of comparison, in 2016, Germans enjoyed a 4.2 percent unemployment rate but the continent, a whole, stagnated economically.

The Stay campaign argued that the alternative was economic disaster but remaining in state stagnation as a way to remedy what ailed Britain seemed illogical and short sighted to Leavers.  They, rightly or wrongly, believed that Europe would throw up trade obstacles.  The United Kingdom is one of Germany's main trading partner and the last thing the Germans want is a trade war, a la U.S. and China, with the British.  The EU did not create the current financial relationships; Britain's role goes back two centuries and the EU system aligns with current financial reality.  Thus, if British banks were to move company headquarters to Frankfurt, New York City would become the new financial center.  Europe needs London to its financial center and will not lock it out.

"Map? What Map?"
economist.com

The second reason for Great Britain's impending exit is nationalism.  Nationalism is something that has existed for centuries and the current version is predicated the growing distrust of multinational financial, trade, and defense organization created after World War II (Ibid).  Think the EU, NATO, and the International Monetary Fund.  Opponents of the EU say these institutions are irrelevant and they usurp control from member nations.  Fear and mistrust made Brexit a viable solution.

European Union supporters make the case that these institutions are still relevant but need a tune up not abandonment.  The migration crisis was the trigger issue for Europe.  "Some EU leaders argued that aiding refugees was a moral obligation.  But EU opponents saw immigration as national issue, as it affected the internal life of the country" (Ibid).  Avoiding the issue was the catalyst for the Leave campaign.  The EU does not grasp the power of nationalism: "It attempts to retain nationality as a cultural right.  On the other hand, it deprives individual nations of the power to make many decisions" (Ibid).  This argument might have worked in 2008 but it is losing traction as the Brexit  October 31 deadline looms on the horizon.

Random London street, view from a bus
Photograph by Blogger

The third reason for Great Britain's imminent departure from the European Union is political elitism.  Former Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative government suffered a profound loss as did the Labour party.  Both parties back the Remain campaign despite many of its members defecting to the Leave campaign.  In the end, it became a three-way struggle: both main parties supporting remaining in the EU and people in third group saw the Tories (Conservatives) and Labour as hostile to their interests.  There is more to this.

The oncoming Brexit has financial markets feeling skittish.  What the financial markets did comprehend is just how much credibility they lost following the 2008 financial crisis.

Many of the Leavers "believed that the financial industry's recklessness and incompetence had created a disaster for many..." (Ibid).  Also, Leave supporters saw no real benefit for themselves in the success of the financial industry, regardless whether it was true.

The key to understanding Brexit is that it was a rebuke of the British elite.  Voters believed that the politicians, intellectuals, and business leaders lost their legitimacy.  If this sounds familiar, it is one of the same reasons that brought Mr. Donald Trump to power and fueling similar movements in Poland, Italy, France, and Germany.  It is not just contempt for the main political parties, it is resentment for their underlying principles.  That said, what now?

Manchester City Center
Manchester, England, U.K.
Photograph by Blogger

 What happens next?  Larry the Number 10 Cat becomes prime minister.  Just wanted to see if you were paying attention.  Actually, there are six possible outcomes pointing to the Halloween deadline.  Sounds kind of ominous.  So is crashing out of the EU come "hell and high water."

The first option is Parliament takes control.  Members of Parliament do not see eye-to-eye about much of Brexit but a majority oppose a no-deal exit and would not make it an option.

The next option is go nuclear.  If Parliament fails to legislate against a no-deal exit, MPs could resort to a vote of no confidence and oust PM (for now) Boris Johnson (nytimes.com; Aug. 30, 2019; date accessed Sept. 4, 2019).  As of today, MPs do not have the votes to do that and even if they did have the votes, it would not really solve anything.

British law calls for the formation of a new government within two weeks of a general election.  The British government could form a caretaker administration that would presumably ask for another delay in order to hold a new election.  The problem is opposition MPs cannot agree on a caretaker prime minister.  Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is the natural choice but he is too far left and critical of the EU.  The preferred choice is former Tory cabinet minister Kenneth Clark but that would require Mr. Corbyn to stand down because any vote of no-confidence would require his support. (Ibid)

Even if PM Johnson refused to resign and schedule a general election for November, effectively forcing a no-deal Brexit.  The dirty pool of this move would scar British politics.  However, there is nothing in the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act that requires a prime minister to immediately resign.

Liverpool City Hall
Liverpool, England, United Kingdom
Photograph by Blogger

The third option is a Snap Election.  If MPs successfully pass legislation outlawing a no-deal Brexit before Parliament is prorogued, PM Boris Johnson could out maneuver them by calling for a Snap Election.  This is always a risky move.  As of today, PM Johnson suffered two harsh rebukes: "First a 'rebel alliance' of opposition of lawmakers and members of Johnson's own Conservative Party voted Tuesday and Wednesday to make a 'no deal' Brexit illegal" (time.com; date accessed Sept. 4, 2019).  Then late today, the Prime Minister failed to secure the necessary two-thirds majority to hold elections on October 15, thanks to a 2011 law requiring a supermajority (Ibid).

The fourth option is leaving the E.U. with a deal.  No one seems to think that this has any chance since Parliament voted three times against a Brexit deal put forth by PM Johnson's predecessor Theresa May and the European Union absolutely refuses to re-open negotiations.  It still could happen.  The critical dates to keep an eye on is October 17-18 when the EU leaders meet, opening an opportunity for a last minute negotiations (nytimes.com; Aug 29, 2019; date accessed Sept. 4, 2019).  The Prime Minister could pressure European leader to go "my way or the highway."

St. Paul's Cathedral
London, England, United Kingdom
Photograph by Blogger

 The fifth option is the feared No-Deal Brexit.  The Prime Minister dangles the threat crashing out of the EU as a negotiating tactic and he could be serious.  A No-Deal Brexit could happen if the EU leaders offer too few concessions to his liking and given the limited amount of time Parliament has to prevent it, he could be successful (Ibid; Aug. 30, 2019).  This is the default setting that could allow him to rally his supporters around a general election later this year or next year.  This risk here is economic chaos could make an election unwinnable for the Conservative Party.

The last option is the courts.  There are three cases currently under consideration by British courts against the decision to suspend Parliament.  Legal experts do not think they are likely to succeed--although anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller won her case against former PM May's attempts to bypass Parliament (Ibid; Dec. 5, 2016) when starting exist talks.  Ms. Miller is trying again and former Prime Minister John Major said he would seek a legal remedy.  One of the three cases already failed its first test when a judge in Edinburgh refused the request of 75 MPs for an immediate court order (Ibid).  The courts are still an option should Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuse to resign if Parliament votes for a no-confidence or his party loses a general election.


Some have even suggested a second referendum but that is not going to happen.  What will happen come October 31, 2019 is anyone's guess.