Hello Everyone:
It is a sunny and windy afternoon in the blogosphere and time for the weekly edition of Blogger Candidate Forum. Before we get started on today's subject, possible Republican challengers to the president's re-election, a couple of news items: First, former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was sentenced today to 43 months in federal prison. This is in addition to the 47 months he received, bringing the total to over seven years in prison. Additionally, the state of New York charged Mr. Manafort with 16 crimes, all not pardonable by the president. That is seven years in federal prison, no parole. Second, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was interviewed by the Washington Post about working with a Republican led Senate and White House. One of the questions Speaker Pelosi was asked was impeachment. She was quoted he [the president] was not worth it. Allow Blogger to clarify this statement. Taken in context, what she meant, barring any bombshell revelations from the special counsel's much anticipated final report, there is no political capital or public sentiment behind impeachment. Impeachment is both a political and legal process; right now, the majority of Americans are opposed to it. The better choice is let the voters decide the matter. Speaking of voters, let us take a look at who could challenge Mr. Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.
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| Mr. Donald Trump newsweek.com |
The president's support remains strong among registered Republicans. A new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa registered Republicans revealed that 81 percent approve of the way the president is doing his job. Further, 82 percent say they have a favorable opinion of the president, up five points from December. Two-thirds of Iowa Republican voters say they would re-elect the president (cdn.cnn.com; Mar. 11, 2019; date accessed Mar. 13, 2019). Despite the rosy numbers, there are signs that a potential challenger could slip in. Overall, 40 percent of Republicans say they hope the president faces a same party challenger and 41 percent say they hope he goes unopposed (cnn.com; Mar. 11, 2019; Mar. 13, 2019). The hope for a same party challengers is higher among women (44 percent) than men (36 percent) (Ibid). Younger Republican voters and those with college degrees also favored a same party challenger (Ibid). While the polls indicate that voters have doubts about the president's ability to do his job, it does not mean they are ready to defect. If the president does face a challenger(s), who would be the most viable candidate?
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| Governor William Weld (R-MA) bostonmagazine.com |
Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld announced he was forming an exploratory committee as a prelude to challenging the president in 2020, at a New Hampshire breakfast in mid-February. Governor Weld is not well known at the national level and may not get a lot of support from Republican voters because of Gov. Weld's previous support of President Barack Obama and brief time as a Libertarian (apnews.com; Feb. 15, 2019; date accessed Mar. 13, 2019). Conservative leader William Kristol told AP News,
I think he deserves a lot of credit for being the first one in the pool. The water's pretty cool,... But he won't be the last. (Ibid)
Gov. Weld told the breakfast attendees that the president was putting the nation in grave peril (Ibid). He continued,
We have a president whose priorities are skewed toward promotion of himself rather than for the good of the country,... He many have great energy and considerable raw talent, but he does not use that in ways that promote democracy, truth, justice and equal opportunity for all. To compound matters, out president is simply too unstable to carry out the duties of the highest executive in the land. (Ibid)
Governor William Weld is the first serious contender for the Republican nomination but there are others as well.
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| Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio) nymag.com |
Remember former Ohio Governor John Kasich? In case you forgot, Gov. Kasich was unable to seek re-election because of term limits, instead, ran for the 2016 Republican nomination. Blogger had a little fun with him over his eat your way campaign strategy during the Mid-Atlantic states primary. Since leaving office in January, is very seriously (newsweek.com; Nov, 25, 2018; date accessed Mar. 13, 2019) contemplating mounting another campaign for the nomination. Gov. Kasich set himself apart from other Republican politicians by refusing to endorse Mr. Trump and also stated that he would not vote for him (Ibid).
Speaking with ABC News television program This Week, the governor confirmed that he is considering a challenge. He told host George Stephanopoulos,
Look, we need different leadership--there isn't any question about it,... I'm worried about our country-- and not just in the short-term, but I'm worried [about the] country in the long-term...(Ibid)
Gov. Kasich pointed to Mr. Trump's positions on Saudi Arabia, the growing national debt, and differences on immigration policy, and the general tenor of the administration as some of reasons he would toss his hat into the ring again. He went on to say:
The question for me is, what do I do about this?... Do I run because I've determined that I can win? Or is it important for me to make such a good showing that I can send a message that can disrupt the political system in this country? So yeah, I have to think about it,... I'm not being coy,... I'm just not trying to do this for some kind of game. This really, really serious to me. (Ibid)
| Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) cnn.com |
First, he accepted an invitation to speak at the "Politics and Eggs" breakfast held by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm. Rest assure, The Governor is not flying up to New Hampshire for eggs and coffee. Gov. Hogan is clearly aware that his appearance at the gathering sends a clear message that he seriously plans to take steps to challenge the president. Second, during a Washington D.C. gathering of the National Governors Association winter meeting, he tore into the Republican National Committee's efforts to curtail challenges to Mr. Trump. He told the assembled governors,
Typically they try to be fair arbiters of a process, and I've never seen anything like it and I've been involved with the Republican Party for most of my life. It's unprecedented,... (politico.com; Feb. 21, 2019; date accessed Mar. 13, 2019)
He went on to say,
And the question is, what are they afraid of?... Because on the one hand you look at the polls, 70 percent of Republicans support the president in a primary. Why are they so concerned?...
Why, indeed is an excellent question.
The political reality is Mr. Donald Trump remains popular with the broad base of the Republican Party. Even if the special counsel's final report, investigations by Congress and federal prosecutors yield devastating conclusions, the majority of Republicans will firmly stand behind the president. Blogger believes that Governors William Weld, Larry Hogan, John Kasich, and any others primary challengers' point is to disrupt the process and send a message. This will be another interesting story to follow as it unfolds over the next year-and-half. Will a same party primary challenger unseat an incumbent president? Stay tuned.
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