Hello Everyone:
It is a beautiful, not too beastly hot Wednesday and time for Blogger Candidate Forum. Congratulations to Team Croatia. They go through to the final on Sunday, where they will take on Team France. England will Belgium in the B final on Saturday. Blogger is consoling herself over England's loss with chocolate. Blogger feels better.
The nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to United Supreme Court has put the spotlight on the Senate. One of the Senate's duties, according to the U.S. Constitution, is the timely confirmation of presidential appointees, including federal judges. Today, Blogger thought is might be useful to take a look at the upcoming senate races. The Senate Democrats poised to take an aggressive approach, which might include block Judge Kavanaugh's nomination. Right now, the math does not favor the Democrats. Of course that could change on November 6--by the way, now is as good as time as any to register to vote. For information, please go to usa.gov to register, confirm or change your voter registration information. Sorry for the momentary but necessary digression. Therefore, let us take a look and see what the senate landscape might look like after the midterm elections.
As we speak, the Senate stands at 51-49, in favor of the Republicans. If a vote, by the full Senate, were taken today, the Democrats would need to flip three Republicans to avoid Vice President Mike Pence casting the tie-breaker vote in favor of Judge Kavanaugh. Thus, the Republicans cannot afford to lose anyone. However, if the Democrats proceed to drag out the nomination beyond the election, Judge Kavanaugh will find his bumpy road to the bench, even more perilous. The Senate Democrats first have to gain control of the upper chamber first. The road to achieving that goal just got more narrow.
Axios, together with Survey Monkey, just released a large batch of polls from the 2018 Senate battleground states, which depending on your perspective, is either cause for cheer or worry. Alexis McCammond reports, "To win the Senate, Democrats need to keep all 10 seats they're defending in states President Trump won in 2016--plus pick up two more seats" (axios.com; July 10, 2018; date accessed July 11, 2018). Not likely to happen, according to the new poll of key states that shows Democrats losing three of the battleground seats, while picking up two Republican held seats--still not quite the majority (surveymonkey.com; date accessed July 11, 2018). Democrats in those states are digging in their heels.
In the ten states won by the president in 2016, incumbent Democrats are playing defense (vox; June 28, 2018; date accessed July 11, 2018), while having a couple real opportunities to capture Republican-held seats (Ibid). The most likely candidates for flipping are in Nevada and Arizona. Nevada Senator Dean Heller is in serious trouble in his race with Representative Jacky Rosen (D). The two are virtually tied, only a minuscule .4 percent separate the two. Senator Heller's biggest problem could be Mr. Trump. The president is not exactly the most popular person in Nevada with a 39 percent approval rating coupled with White House scandal, legislative stumbles on healthcare and immigration. Senator Heller is only Republican running in a state won by Hillary Clinton and voted with the president 91 percent of the time (Ibid; Apr. 25, 2018).
Representive Jacky Rosen has her work cut out for her. A poll released in April found that she still trail behind the senator in name recognition (Ibid). Senator Heller is polling better with independents (Ibid). Meanwhile, things look wee better in Arizona.
Democrat Representative Kyrsten Sinema, the presumptive candidate, is leading establishment candidates Rep. Martha McSally, conservative former state Senator Kelli Ward, and, why was he allowed to run, Sheriff Joe Arpaio (Ibid; Apr. 19, 2018). However, Democrats are narrowly trailing Republicans in Florida (Ibid; Apr. 9, 2018) North Dakota (Ibid; Feb. 15, 2018) and Indiana (Ibid; May 2018). This would mean the Republican majority would hold at 52-48. Which means that if the Democrats successfully dragged out Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination past the the election, the likelihood of his confirmation would be greater.
Tennessee is more of a long shot for Democrats, if the Axios poll holds true. Dylan Scott writes, "A Democratic win always seemed a stretch; the state pretty consistently votes for Republican, and Trump is still pretty popular here (Ibid; July 10, 2018). All is not lost for the Democrats. They have a strong candidate in popular former Governor Phil Bredesen, who is leading in the polls. The Axios poll paints a different picture: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) is running away by 14 points. In earlier polls, Gov. Bredesen had maintained a 5-point average lead (realclearpolitics.com; date accessed July 11, 2018).
There is an even better case for Democratic optimism in Montana and West Viriginia. According to the Axios poll Joe Tester been consistently ahead by 12 points (vox.com; June 6, 2018; date accessed July 11, 2018). West Virginia incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is also looking good, holding a steady 13-point lead in the Axios poll (Ibid; May 8, 2018) and polling 6-point ahead on average (realclearpolitics.com; date accessed July 11, 2018).
The Axios survey found incumbent Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) (vox.com; Apr. 17, 2018; date accessed July 11, 2018) a mere 2-points ahead of Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley (Ibid; Apr. 19, 2018). Indiana and North Dakota are the toughest races for Democrats.
Dylan Scott reports, "Axios found incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly down 2 points to Republican Mike Braun in Indiana, and the only other poll put Braun ahead by 1-point." In North Dakota, incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) is 5-points behind Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) according to the Axios survey. The polls suggest a close race. The survey did not include the Texas senate race where Rep. Beto O'Rourke is challenging in incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) (Ibid; Apr. 18, 2018).
It is still a while to go before the voters have their say. Mr. Trump and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) want Judge Brett Kavanaugh confirmed before the November 6 election. They may get their wish but not without a fight. The Senate Judiciary Committee wants time to sift through Judge Kavanaugh's deep paper trail of legal opinions. Blogger believes that Senate Minority leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) fully understands the landscape and may use different tactics to, at least, stall the process until after the election. This is a game whose winner will be based on points.
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