|Just a friendly reminder|
it is Wednesday and time for the weekly edition of Blogger Candidate Forum. There was no primary again this week but we are less than a week away from the end of Primary season and "The Big One"-the California Primary. At stake for the Republicans-172 delegates and 546 delegate for the Democrats. While the Republican primary season is effectively over, Senator Bernie Sanders and Secretary Hillary Clinton continue battle it out for every last delegate in the Golden State. Blogger will be going to the poll next to cast her vote. Yours truly still has not completely decided whether the Gentleman from Vermont or Madame Secretary deserve Blogger's vote. On that note, it might be a good time to what the surveys say about how each Democratic candidate would fare against Donald Trump.
|Hypothetical General Election Trump vs. Sanders|
Right now...in every major poll, national poll and statewide poll done in the last month, sex weeks, we are defeating Trump often by big numbers, and always at a larger margin than Secretary Clinton is.
f you look at the graph on the left-hand side, you can see the Gentleman from Vermont handily beats Mr. Trump by 18 points. As Blogger has said time and again, numbers do not lie, you can only add, subtract, multiply, and divide. This is aphorism is certainly true in polls commissioned by NBC, Fox, and CBS news, CNN/ORC, USA Today-Suffolk, and GWU-Battleground that consistently show the Gentleman from Vermont beating Mr. Trump by an average of 6.25 points. (http://www.politifact.com)
|Quinnipiac University Poll 2016 Presidential Election|
I would love to run against Donald Trump, and I'll tell you why,...Fort a start,...not all, but almost every poll has shown that Sanders vs. Trump does a lot better than Clinton vs. Trump...And, that's true nationally. (Ibid)
That statement was mostly true in polls commissioned in February that matched the three remaining candidates. In similar polls taken in May, the numbers still proves Senator Sanders's assertion correct. Moreover, the Gentleman from Vermont bests Mr. Trump by an average of 12 points in each of the surveys. It sounds like, case closed, give the nomination to Senator Bernie Sanders, right? Not so fast.
|Senator Bernie Sanders|
Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University told Politifact Georgia, "...Sanders shows up so strongly in head-to-head polls because Trump and Clinton have such high negatives. Specifically, Mr. Swint said,
General election polls don't mean much until the conventions are over and you get to late summer or early fall...A lot of voters don't look at Sanders as a legitimate threat. It's almost like he's an imaginary candidate. (Ibid) Ouch.
Further, early polls do not exclude "likely voters" as the later campaign surgery do. Washington University political scientist and public opinion specialist Steven S. Smith told Politifact, that it does make a difference given the Gentleman from Vermont's high rates of support among millennial voters with a short voting history. Specifically,
If Sanders draws disproportionately from people who are not likely to vote, which is a reasonable speculation at this point, then his support may be somewhat overstated in some comparisons. (Ibid)
Just for the sake of noting, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd observed that Madame Secretary can expect to poll better against Mr. Trump once she secures the nomination and has the backing of former Sanders supporters. What do the numbers say about Madame Secretary?
|Trump vs. Clinton General Election|
If these early polls are indication, the November Elections are going to be very suspenseful. Could we see another Gore v. Bush like we did in the 2000 cycle? No thank you. Early on in the Primary season, Mr. Trump's polemical views on abortion and immigration and his hijacking of the Red Team establishment were considered the gifts that kept on giving. Blue Team operative were just salivating at the chance to take on the real estate magnet in the General Elections.
|"2016 General Election Preference"|
It will be close...I think that Trump as the nominee is an advantage for our party, but not nearly the advantage that some people thought and hoped it would be...I think he has proven to be a far more formidable candidate than expected. (http://www.cnn.com)
Jay Carson, Madame's Secretary's 2008 press secretary, now producer for the Netflix series House of Cards (naturally) sounded more alarmist on his Instagram feed,
Here's the bad news--this guy can win the general election pretty damn easily...I hear far too many of my liberal friends calling a 'joke' and acting like the general election (election) is in the bag which is nuts because he's dangerous and he has a path to victory. (Ibid) Blogger concurs.
Now Blogger must attempt to answer the question, "If the 2016 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton?" Or Senator Sanders? Sorry to sound like a tease but you will all have to wait until the post-California Primary edition of Blogger Candidate Forum.