Blogger Candidate Forum: Nebraska and West Virginia Primary Wrap Up

ABC News Democratic Exit Poll for West Virginia
abcnews.go.com

Hello Everyone:

It is time for another edition of the Blogger Candidate Forum.  Not a lot of fireworks from the West Virginia and Nebraska Republican primaries.  Campaigning without the hindrance of opponents, Donald Trump easily won both states.  Some Republican voters in those states registered their protest for the presumptive nominee by checking off either Gov. John Kasich, Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and Dr. Ben Carson, whose names were on the ballot even though they are out of contention.  Over on the Democrat side, Senator Bernie Sanders also had an easy night, handily defeating frontrunner Secretary Hillary Clinton.  That was not a big surprise either because the Gentleman from Vermont was expected to do well.  That aside, the delegate math is still not in his favor.  Let us take a look at the week that was and see what comes next.

The winners of the Nebraska and West Virginia primaries
indystar.com

Let us begin with the numbers.  On the Blue side of the aisle, the Gentleman from Vermont beat Madame Secretary 51.4 to 35.8 percent of the vote.  This victory earned Senator Sanders eighteen delegates, while Secretary Clinton added 11 more to her total.  When you factor in Super delegates, Madame Secretary has a 2,240 out of 2,383 delegates needed to secure the nomination outright.  Senator Sanders still lags behind with 1,473 delegates.  (http://www.nytimes.com)

On the Red side of the aisle, Donald Trump had an easy night.  So confident was the sole Republican candidate, that Mr. Trump was reported to have told voters to stay home and save their vote for November.  That did not deter voters from in both states from coming out and voting for the Gentleman from Texas and the Governor, whose names were on the ballot despite their ignominious exit last week.  Donald Trump won the Nebraska state primary with 61.4 percent of the vote, earning him 36 delegates.  In West Virginia, he won with 77 percent of the to add 34 delegates to give him a grand total of 1,135 out of 1,237 needed to secure the nomination outright.  (Ibid) At this point, his nomination is a foregone conclusion.  What do we know about the night?

West Virginia and Nebraska primaries
wymt.com

The first thing we know about Tuesday night is West Virginia is not with her.  Eight years ago, Madame Secretary defeated then-Senator Barack Obama in the state's primary but it was close.  This election cycle, she was beaten by a wide margin.  Senator Sanders easily won in nearly every demographic, doing extremely well among voters who were concerned with the economy and in coal industry households.  Secretary Clinton, made the mistake of saying "she wanted to 'put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.'"  Although she tried to step back from the comment, the damage was done.(http://www.cnn.com)

Clinton campaign lawn sign
©Getty Images
msnbc.com

The second thing we know is even though Democratic voters in West Virginia are more conservative and Madame Secretary is a moderate, that did not help.  When queried, "Nearly 40% of Democratic voters said they want the next president to be 'less liberal' than Obama.  Of those voters, 62% went with Sanders."  Strange, given the more moderate character of West Virginian Democrats.  This highlights a weakness in the Clinton campaign.  First, her disappointing finish is founded on more than her coal comments, it demonstrates the challenges she faces in the General Elections while campaigning for President Obama's third term.   In order to beat Mr. Trump in November, Madame Secretary will have to well with moderate-to-conservative voters in the Midwest.  She does not need to win with them but she just needs to do well.  Madame Secretary also wants to focus her attention on exciting and uniting the base going into November.  This seems like mission impossible if she keeps losing to Senator Sanders.  The dwindling momentum is making harder to seal the deal with liberal base.  (Ibid)

2016 Delegate Tracker
host.madison.com

Third,  numbers do not lie.  You can only add, subtract, multiple, and divide.  In this case, the numbers are not in favor of Senator Bernie Sanders.  West Virginia only had 29 delegates at stake, a tiny fraction of the remaining 900 left until the end of Primary season.  Even with his win, the Gentleman from Vermont did little to move the needle substantially toward him.  Entering Tuesday, Senator Sanders "needed more pledged delegates than remain in upcoming primaries to clinch the nomination."  Best case scenario, he can still pick up enough pledged delegates going into the Convention with a slim lead.  He would also need to flip the super delegates his way to secure the nomination.  One final point, while the demographics in West Virginia favored the Senator, this is not the case in California and New Jersey, who vote JUNE 7.  (Ibid)

Undecided Republicans
fivethirtyeight.com

Fourth thing we know is the Republican Party has not completely made up its mind about supporting Donald Trump.  Witness, Speaker of The House Paul Ryan comment about not being quite ready to support the presumptive nominee and Mr. Trump's retort about not needed the Speaker's support.  Word of friendly advice, the Speaker of the House is the one of the most powerful people in Washington D.C. and second in line to the presidency.  You want to get along with the Speaker of The House, especially if he or she is from your own party.  This is not to say that the Democrats are all holding hands singing kumbaya.  However, Blogger is more optimistic about the Democrats coming together under a single banner than the Republicans.

Sanders for President rally in Los Angeles, California
latimes.com

The fifth thing we know is that it is the year of the outsider.  Exist polls have consistently demonstrated that the voters are fed up with the status quo and want a shake up.  In the West Virginia primary, "only 27% said they want a candidate who continues Obama's policies.  In both states, more than 90% of Republican voters said they were 'angry' or 'dissatisfied' with federal government.  And more than 6 in 10 Republicans in Nebraska said they felt 'betrayed' by GOP politicians."    (http://www.cnn.com)  That is a lot of very unhappy voters, to say the utmost least.  However, these statistics reflect an overall pattern that has been building over the past several years, dissatisfaction with the status quo.  This has given rise to the TEA Party and the rise of the progressive wing of the Democratic party.  If either Donald Trump of Secretary Hillary Clinton do not respond to an electorate hungry for major, one or the other will find themselves counting their losses on November 9.  This challenge is greater for Madame Secretary whose campaign platform is founded on President Obama's legacy.