Forever Young Cities

http://www.citylab.com/2015/02/is-your-neighborhood-changing-it-might-be-youthifaction-not-gentrification/385193/

Lead large
Flickr/Andreá Portilla
citylab.com

Hello Everyone:

Millennials are being celebrated for moving back to and reinvigorating the cities.  In a recent article for City Lab by Co-founder and Editor at Large Richard Florida titled, "Is Your Neighborhood Changing?  It Might Be Youthification, Not Gentrification" looks at new study by geographer and urban planner Markus Moos of the University of Waterloo how refers to the millennial march to the cities as "youthification."  Mr. Moos defines youthification "as the 'influx of young adult into higher density' cities and neighborhoods." It one respect, it seems that these neighborhoods are sipping from a fountain of youth when new infusions of twenty-somethings continue to take residence as families and children move out in search of more spacious living.

Austin, Texas Guadalupe
planetizen.com

Markus Moos is care to differentiate between "...youthification from the broader process-and less precise construct-of gentrification."  Quoting Mr. Moos, Mr. Florida writes, "The youthification process differs from gentrification-an increase in social status of a neighborhood-in that the former is not as explicitly a class-based process, although the two are not mutually exclusive....Gentrification, when viewed as a series of stages involving ever slightly wealthier but more risk averse in-movers, arguably has set the stage for a broader segment of the population."

The Youthification Process
Markus Moos
citylab.com

The table on the left is Mr. Moos's graphic explanation of the youthification process as takes place in stages.  The process begins when younger people move into places such as the leftover spaces from de-industrialized districts. The process continues with "...newer rental housing and smaller one-bedroom condos are built and amenities flood the neighborhood, drawing greater numbers of young people as living costs rise."  However, which cities are experiencing youthification?

The map below, to the left, is from Mr. Moos's related online project "Generationed City" (http://www.generationedcity.uwaterloo.ca) maps out specific cities and metropolitan areas in the United States and Canada, based on youthification.  defined as the share 25-34 year old inhabitants.  There are a few

Where the "youthified" cities are
Markus Moos
citylab.com

surprises, Salt Lake City, Utah ranks number one on the list of "Cities With The Largest Shares Of Young Adults," beating out Austin, Denver, Washington D.C. and Seattle.  Houston, Texas and Las Vegas round out the list.  North of the border, Calgary and Edmonton (both rapidly growing metropolitan areas in the Alberta Province) beat out Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.  Mr. Florida is not surprised that the American Rustbelt metropolitans of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Rochester, Cleveland, and Detroit are the least youthified cities.

Percentage of young adults in select North American Metros
Markus Moos
dicasta.com

Youthification is not sui generis to metros, it can also be clearly felt at the neighborhood level. To understand this, Markus Moos mapped out Canada's three largest metropolitans: Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.  The darker red areas on the map (see below left) indicate higher concentrations of youthification.  For example, in Toronto, youthification is focused in the urban core, along transit lines.  It also clusters around the University of Toronto, Ryerson University, and the Ontario College of Art and Design; along College and Queen Streets which feature ample bars and restaurants.  Big surprise. Mr. Florida writes, "There are also significant blocks of young people at the ends of metro lines, where they can access more affordable housing

Toronto Youthification Clustering
Markus Moos
dicasta.com

The youthification map of Vancouver (below left) takes on a more bloc-like pattern, primarily centered on and moving out from the Burrand inlet waterfront.  Younger Vancouver residents, like their Toronto counterparts, cluster around public transit lines and commercial districts like Main Street and Commercial Drive.  By contrast, young Montreal inhabitants are more dispersed, albeit along transit lines.

Finally, we come to the big question, "What lies behind youthification?"  To answer this question, Mr. Moos did a statistical analysis of the factors that could be associated with youthful migration: household income, household size, the share of possible gentrifiers and immigrants in Canada's three largest metropolitan areas between 1981 and 2011.

Markus Moos found several determinants, including: household income, household size, and immigration-associated with higher density.  Citing Mr. Moos's conclusion, Mr. Florida reports, "the connection between density and age of residents has increased substantially over time.  This is true of all three metros.  In Montreal, the correlation between young people (aged 25 to 34) and density from .22 in 1981 to .66 by 2011; in Toronto, it went from .36 to ,62; and in Vancouver it increased from .49 to .68."

Park Slope, Brooklyn, New York
elegran.com

Conversely, the link between density and older age groups (44-54 and 55-64) typically moved in the opposite direction, indicating that people falling into these age groups gravitate toward lower-density suburbs.  In Toronto and Montreal, the data presents a negative correlation between residents 65 and older and density.  This indicates a geographic segregation of age groups within the city. However, in Vancouver, Markus Moos suggests that this gap is attributed to "generational bifurcation," i.e. older and young people live in the inner core while middle aged Vancouverites reside in the less dense suburb areas.

What accounts for this phenomena and what does it signify?  Mr. Moos implies that these changes are an outgrowth of a various socio-economic shifts.  The millennials in the United States and Canada are experiencing job insecurity, more holes in the social safety net, higher housing costs, delayed childbirth, and a greater enthusiasm for city living. Richard Florida writes, "For these reasons, renting closer to the city center-where increasing stocks of divided row housing and condos are readily available-becomes a more attractive option."  Naturally, it remains to be seen if this is a continuing trend.  The remaining questions are "Will those who move to city center in their 20s and 30s remain there to raise their children?  Or will they pack it up and move to less dense places, leaving cities to become 'forever young' zones that serve resting stops for the transient?"

If we really stop and think about everything thus far, the conclusions reached by Markus Moos appear to support one very basic fact of cities and metropolitan areas, their populations are organic. Organic meaning, as one demographic group moves in, the other moves on.  This happens gradually, over time.  Cities and metropolitan areas youthify over time, the millennials that populate the urban centers did not all decide, one day, to pack up and move to the places profiled in the "Generationed City" study.  They were initially attracted by low housing costs and proximity to transit lines and work opportunities.  Thus, the youthification process occurred over time and will continue to take place as one generation moves in and the other moves out.  This part of the nature of cities.