Blogger Candidate Forum: Just Not Her Or Her Or Her

Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren at yesterday's debate
bostonglobe.com

Hello Everyone:

It is Wednesday time for Blogger Candidate Forum.  Today we get attempt to answer the question posed to the candidates at yesterday evening's Democratic candidate debate: Can a woman beat the president?  Before we head down that road, an impeachment update.  Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced that she has finally transmitted the articles of impeachment to the Senate and the appointment of managers who will argue the case, present evidence (if allowed), and cross examine witnesses (if allowed).  Meanwhile, a small group of moderate Republican senators are asking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to allow witnesses and evidence, something he has been hesitant to do.  Leader McConnell announced that he has the votes to start the trial, scheduled for next Wednesday.  The Candidate Forum will keep you posted on developments.  Onward.

grabien.com

Can a woman candidate beat the incumbent Mr. Donald Trump?  This was the big question at yesterday evening's candidate debate in Des Moines, Iowa.  This question was first asked in 2016, when it became obvious that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic standard bearer in the general election.  Now, that question is being asked again in context to Senator Elizabeth Warren's front runner status.  What spurred the topic is a couple of disturbing reports affecting fellow front runner Senator Bernie Sanders' (I-VT) campaign.  First, the report that volunteers are being trained to belittle the Lady from Massachusetts and second, a statement from the Warren campaign that referred to a meeting the candidates had a year ago.  During the meeting, one of the subjects discussed was whether a female candidate could beat Mr. Trump?  According to the Warren campaign, the Gentleman from Vermont disagreed.  For the record, the Gentleman from Vermont has denied, adding that he always supported the idea of a female candidate taking on the president.  So, can a woman beat the president?  Shall we discuss.

Senator Elizabeth Warren
nytimes.com

The question of whether a woman can beat the incumbent president re-opened the long simmering question of gender and sexism.  Both senators did acknowledge that they privately discussed the topic in December 2018 but presented competing interpretations of event at yesterday's debate, the last one before the February 3 Iowa Caucus.  The Lady from Massachusetts urged voters to address the obstacle female candidates face.  She told the audience in Des Moines and watching on CNN "...it's one she can clear and make history" (washingtonpost.com; Jan. 14, 2020; date accessed Jan. 15, 2020).  Senator Warren responded,

Look, don't deny that the question is there,... Back in the 1960s people asked, 'Could a Catholic win?'  Back in 2008, people asked if an African American could win.  In both times, the Democratic Party stepped up and said yes. (Ibid)

The timing of the question comes at a time, less than three before the Iowa caucus, two men are leading the poll: former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) and the Gentleman from Vermont top the polls; in some polls former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Peter Buttigieg (Boot/edge/edge) is among the leaders.  The Lady from Massachusetts has since faded, the once promising campaigns of Senators Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) have folded; author Marianne Williamson's campaign was always a non-starter and Hawai'i Representative Tulsi Gabbard is still, for reasons unknown to anyone, running for president.  The only other viable female candidate, Minnesota Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar (Clo/ba/shar).  Although Secretary Clinton's loss was a complete shock to the electoral sense, it did inspire more women to enter politics, resulting in a record number of Democratic female freshman members of Congress.  Perhaps the time is right to seriously consider the fact that a woman can beat Mr. Trump.

Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobucher (D-MN)
nytimes.com

 Consider this, technically a woman did beat the president.  Secretary Clinton did win the popular vote but the only vote that really counted was the Electoral College vote.  However, every time a woman's name is mentioned as potential Democratic candidate for the November 3, 2020 general election, we go right back to the question: Can a woman beat Mr. Trump?  Stephanie Schriock, the president of Emily's List, a group focused on getting Democratic women who support abortion rights elected, spoke to The Washington Post,

We keep getting stuck in the 'Yeah, but, can a woman beat Trump?'... We've been, for 12 month, looking at electability in a really narrow way, and it's caused a huge amount of problems in this primary (Ibid)

Candidate Forum pro tip:  get over yourselves.  You will never ever find a woman that ticks off all the electability.  Focus on what they have to say.

July 2019
fivethirtyeight.com

While voters are open to the idea of a female candidate taking on the incumbent in the general elections--November 3, 2020--actually supporting a female candidate is a fraught decision.  We know the president is a racist, sexist, bully with a very bad Twitter habit, but many wonder if the best choice to take him on is a man.  For women voters, supporting a female candidate is not an automatic thing.  Marilyn Kean, an elderly Sanders supporter from Wilton, Iowa, told The Post,

Because I'm a woman, I suppose I should be wanting [Warren], but I'm not voting for her because she's a woman...Too many men that don't want women there (Ibid)

There in lies part of the problem, men in positions of power not wanting a woman or a person of color sitting in the big chair, making the decisions.  Call it what it is, institutional racism and sexism.  Regardless, this is a pivotal moment for both the Warren and Sanders campaigns.

Just not her or her or her
inquirer.com

For Senator Warren this is the opportunity to tackle head-on the cloud that has hovered over the primary--"the misplaced fer among some voters that after Clinton's 2016 loss, the party would be taking a risk if it nominated a woman again" (motherjones.com: date accessed Jan. 15, 2020).  At a town hall in April 2019, the Lady from Massachusetts was asked about the prospect of getting "Hillary'd" (cnn.com; May 9, 2019; date accesed Jan. 15, 2020).  In July, the New York Times reported

Privately, Democratic strategists, candidates and officials say they've been alarmed by how deeply doubts about female electability have taken hold (nytimes.com; July 3, 2019; date accessed Jan. 15, 2020).

Voters still doubt that a female candidate can beat Mr. Donald Trump but at some point, they will have to decide for themselves if they want to take another chance on a female candidate.  Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar are certainly making good cases for themselves.  The Lady from Massachusetts made a good point yesterday evening when she said that the majority of voters in 2008 were willing to take a chance on an African American.  What she failed to mention is that President Barack Obama ran an excellent ground campaign and knew how to connect with the audience.  What 
hurt Secretary Hillary Clinton was her inability to connect with the crowd and not spending any time in battleground states like: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.  The question for you, dear informed voters, is are you willing to stop insisting on the absolute perfect candidate?


 

The Lesson Of The Fire

Hello Everyone:

It is a lovely Tuesday afternoon and there is more fall out from the Sanders-Warren scandal.  It should be fascinating to see what happens in tonight's candidate debate, the last one before the Iowa Caucus, when CNN moderator Wolf Blitzer poses the question to candidates Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).  Right now, Blogger has other things on her mind, like the mega-fires in Australia and its parallels for California.

Image from Australia
vox.com

The apocalyptic images coming out of the sub-continent of Australia are horrific, to the say very least.  Wildlife experts estimate that about 1 million species of animals, unique to Australia, are on the verge of extinction.  Homes have been reduced to ashes, forest blackened, and it is hard not think about the wild fires that have plagued California, especially the ones in Northern California in 2017, the Paradise Fires in 2018, and the recent Kincade fire.  There is this shared feeling helplessness and a dizzying lack of control over one's environment.  Even more disorienting is the lack of recognition of the mighty fires and their power to turn cars into rivers of melted aluminum and consume over 15 million acres in Australia (nytimes.com; Jan. 9, 2020; date access Jan 14, 2020).  The parallel in terms of destruction are evident and it is important to first take a look at the causes, then look at what are the lessons for California.

A view of the Australian fires from outer space
businessinsider.com

Over the past summer, Australian state and territory has been effected by fire.  However, the largest fires are burning along the stretches of the populated eastern and southern coast (bbc.com; Jan. 13, 2020; date accessed Jan. 14, 2020).  The affected areas include Sydney and Adelaide.  To give you an idea how big the 15 million acre fire is, check out the image on the left-hand side.  The area in red is where the fires are.  That is how engulfing the fires are.  The American space agency NASA believes that the haze will encircle the earth.  How did the fires.

The fire is the size of Manhattan, New York
cnn.com

 Australia is no stranger to bush fires--it has a "fire season" (Ibid).  However, this year fire season is more intense.  The fires are typically caused by lightening strikes or accidentally by a spark--some are also deliberately set (bbc.co.uk; Nov. 14, 2019; date accessed Jan. 20, 2020).  Some have pointed to climate change are exacerbating the fires.

Australia's fire season usually peaks in late January (sciencenews.org; Jan. 9, 2020; date accessed  Jan. 14, 2020) but as of right now, the wildfires have raged through the country, in particular the eastern side, for the past four months.  The wildfires are being fueled by a mix of record high temperatures, long-term drought, dangerously low air and soil moisture entering the normal fire season, and human negligence (Ibid).  Scientists also point to climate change as a cause of "extreme, deadly blazes three times as common by the end of the century" (Ibid).

Identifying climate change's footprints in the mega-fires is difficult.  For years, Australian fire managers have kept an eye on the one culprit behind the unusually hot dry years in the east and may be impacted by global warming: "...an oscillating El Nino-like ocean-atmosphere weather pattern that begins in the Indian Ocean" (Ibid).

El Nino southern oscillation
phys.org

 Similar to El Nino, the "Indian Ocean dipole" (Ibid) pattern has three phases: positive, negative, and neutral (Ibid), depending on whether the eastern or western Indian Ocean waters are warmer.  The more extreme difference between the regions, the stronger the phases. 

Melbourne-based scientist Wenju Cai of CSIRO explained, "When the Indian Ocean dipole is in a particularly strong positive phase--as it was in 2019--it correlates to some of Australia's worst fire seasons,...Global warming is likely to make such extreme positive phases much more common [nature.com; date accessed Jan. 14, 2020]"(Ibid).  Mr. Cai and his colleagues conducted a 2014 study in Nature, in which they simulated future sea-surface temperature fluctuations in the Indian Ocean in a world where greenhouse gas emissions continued as usual (sciencenews.org; Jan. 7, 2020; date accessed  Jan. 14, 2020).  The scientists found that if GHE continued business-as-usual, "the frequency of extreme positive-phase event could increase from about once every 17 years to about once every six years" (Ibid; Jan. 9, 2020).  For California, an El Nino event can mean a lot of rain, especially in the southern part of the state.  Great, you think, but not for fire affected areas like Paradise and Kincade because all the vegetation has been burned away causing landslides.

The ironically named Camp Fire (2018)
Paradise, California
theguardian.com

Both Australian and California have similar terrain.  The sub-continent is in the midst of a prolonged drought that resembles the five-year drought that California experienced until 2017, still dictating land and water use (sfchronicle.com; Jan. 10, 2020; date accessed Jan. 14, 2020).  Not only do they experience dry summers but the dry periods are lasting longer than they used to, exposing expanses of parched bushes, chaparral, and woodlands.  A contingent of 159 U.S. Forest, including 39 from California, Service are part of the army of Australian firefighters and army reservists detailed to the fire.  LeRoy Westerling, a climate and fire scientist at UC Merced told the San Francisco Chronicle,

What we're watching is how accelerating climate change is transforming the the landscape around us and is, in turn, driving the death of millions of animals and shifting the ecosystems,... And it is not a none-off.  This is just one more exclamation point.  We keep thinking, 'Well, it can't worse than this,' but it just keeps getting worse'  (Ibid).

As tempting as it is to compare it to California, you have to keep in mind that Australia is much larger, nearly the size of the continental U.S,. and the fires there consume a huge area.  Here is a fascinating statistic for your: the devastating 2018 fires, the largest fire in the state's history, burned 2 million acres.  The Amazon Rain Forest fires devoured 2.2 million acres; the out-of-control wildfires in Siberia in 2019 destroyed 6.7 million acres (Ibid).  Can anything be done?

There are preventative measures that fire-prone places like California can take to catastrophic fires.  The most popular measure is controlled burns.  This is the most basic forest management practice.  A controlled burn is a deliberately set fire that gets rid of excess vegetation that could fuel a fire.  Once routinely used by farmers, now comes with a fine.  Opposition to controlled burns has largely undercut Australia's ability to prevent wildfires and the United States, the issue is mainly a lack of forest management (thehill.com; date accessed Jan. 14, 2020).  This has been a serious challenge for California and the federal government, which are embracing private solutions.

One private solution is the Forest Resilience Bond (forestresiliencebond.com; date accessed Jan. 14, 2020) developed by the Blue Forest Conservation and the World Resource Institute.  An FRB is a financial tool that raises private capitol from investors to fund desperately needed forest restoration work (thehill.com; date accessed Jan. 14, 2020).  Currently it is conducting a pilot program in California's Tahoe National Forest, with private investors covering the immediate costs.  The investors will recoup their cost over time by stakeholders who will benefit from avoiding catastrophic fires.

Controlled burns are one way to prevent the kind of apocalyptic fires Australia is experiencing right now.  Dealing with climate change is largely a matter of changing human behavior.  Regardless, the environmental clock is ticking and we must take action now.

 

Saving Historic Sites From Climate Change

Hello Everyone:

It is is lovely winter day to start a fresh week on the blog.  First a little news.  Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is ready to transmit the Articles of Impeachment and chose managers for the trial in the Senate, that may start as soon as Wednesday.  Meanwhile, we have some primary news: Register to vote, if you have not already.  New Jersey Democratic Senator Cory Booker is the latest candidate to end his campaign.  Pity, the Gentleman from New Jersey is quite a dynamic speaker.  Troubling news from the Sanders campaign.  According news reports, Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) told rival candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), as early as 2018, that a woman cannot win.  Although the Sanders campaign is denying this report, it is quite troubling to read this from a man who believes in the feminist cause.  Equally troubling is the report that some of the Sanders campaign workers are trashing the Lady from Massachusetts.  Finally, a major international crisis has been averted (sarcasm alert).  Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II has agreed to allow the Duke and Duchess of Sussex to step back from their duties and live part time in Canada.  Thank goodness, now we can move on less pressing issues, like climate change and world heritage sites.

Australian fire map
bbc.com

The apocalyptic fires laying siege to Australia has inspired Yours Truly to take look at how climate change has impacted world heritage sites.  It is no secret that the fires, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and so on have increased in their intensity.  Whatever your thoughts are on the subject, you cannot deny that changing weather patterns are altering our fabric of life.  Mechtild Rossler, the Director of the World Heritage Center, told Time magazine, that "that countries need to work together to share strategies for protecting heritage sites" (time.com; Nov. 22, 2019; date accessed Jan. 13, 2019).  The United Nations Education Scientific Cultural Organization, for example, facilitates countries to

...exchange experiences of things that have worked--and things that have not worked..(Ibid)

Flooding in  Piazza San Marco
Venice, Italy
abc7.com 

Venice is drowning.  Venice, Italy, famed for its canals, is drowning from the worst flooding in 50 years.  The rising waters have submerged most of the city, seeping into historic landmarks such as   Basilica San Marco, the 1,000 church considered one of the best examples of Byzantine architecture.  This risk to Basilica San Marco and other Venetian cultural properties is the filth and salt water that gets into the precious material, causing expansion, cracking, bubbling and explosion (Ibid).  It is not simply a matter of doing replacements in kind with more resilient materials, it is a matter of taking adaptive measures.

Although unusually high tides--acqua alta (Ibid)--is a normal part of Venetian life, after all the city is built on a lagoon on the edge of the Adriatic Sea, but what is not normal is their intensity and frequency because the Mediterranean historically does not have significant tide.  Be that as it may, as sea levels continue to rise, bringing the flooding with them this types of tide, flooding will become more common. Tara Law writes, "Experts say that climate change is likely to blame" (Ibid).  However, implementing protective measures has proven difficult.  Ironically, the Venetian city council  vetoed a measure to combat climate change, just minutes before chamber flooded.  Mother Nature had the last word.

Mother Nature drops the mic
Venice, Italy city council chamber
commondreams.org

Flooding is only one of the many consequences of climate change, threatening many sensitive areas and regions.  Ms. Law reports, "There is a threat that is not often considered say experts--the damage from climate to the world's heritage" (Ibid).  Natural and man-made cultural properties around the world are increasingly in danger of being fundamentally altered, damaged, or destroyed by climate change.Adam Markham, the deputy director of the Climate and Energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Time, "...that if the worlds wants to save these sites, countries will also need to share financial resources" (Ibid).  Although cities as well-known as Venice can anticipate massive international support, the lesser-known cities have a more difficult time raising raising funds.  Ms. Rossler added,

If cities have the engineering structure and the funds available, then they can do a lot to hold it back,... But particularly in developing much money to manage these cities or these historic sites, they are either dependent on international aid or they're just no going to be able to adapt (Ibid)

George Town, Penang, Malaysian
theguardian.com

Climate change will affect cultural property sites in dramatically different ways.  Some places, like Venice, will suffer from flooding, others will be impacted by extreme weather events or rising temperatures.  One example, George Town, the capital of the Malaysian state of Penang is facing rising sea levels, landslides, and typhoons with increasing severity.

George Town, a former colonial town and trading center, was famed for its multicultural heritage, evident in its architecture.  However, the buildings are made from wood, which means they are highly susceptible rotting and insect damage if they get wet.  Heavy rainfall caused by typhoons can lead to landslides, which flow downhill toward the historic areas, inhabited by people.  To remedy the flooding, Penang announced plans to use a "sponge city model" (Ibid).  The proposed project would "include connecting green spaces to help soak up and clean runoff and constructing water retention areas and rain gardens..." (Ibid) 

Underwater in the Great Barrier Reef
Australia
barrons.com

Changes to ocean temperatures threaten to kill off most of the spectacular coral in Australia's Great Barrier Reef.  Few cultural property sites are as vulnerable to climate as the Great Barrier Reef in northeast Australia.  Globally, coral is going white--bleaching--which can cause mass die offs.  Ms. Law reports, "Corals bleach when under stress, especially from higher temperatures.  Researchers have found that there has been an 89% percent decline in the spawning of new coral in the the Great Barrier reef and the situation is likely to only get worse" (Ibid).

Further, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that if global temperatures increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), an estimated 70 to 90 percent of the coral in the world would decline.  However, if global temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), over 99 percent of the coral would disappear (Ibid).  To protect the reef, Australia launched a program that includes a plan to combat coral-eating starfish and curb runoff.  However, Mr. Markham is not so optimistic.  He said,

...If you talk to the coral reef biologists who are actually there...The only we can save the Great Barrier Reef is by slowing global warming....Coral reefs will be devastated by climate change.  There's just no doubt about that.

Yellowstone National Park
Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho United States
travelwyoming.com

The good news about Yellowstone  Park is that it is not about get swept into the ocean, therefore protecting it requires a different approach,  Adam Markham warns that it could look radically different due to climate change, albeit, the changes are occurring to slow for visitors to notice.  The composition of the flora and fauna that make their home in the park is expected change--i.e. "...the land has less forest and more scrub" (Ibid).  Mr. Markham said,

It's going to be an amazing ecosystem, but it's going to be a slightly different ecosystem (Ibid)

He cautions that the scientists and park rangers who want to protect the park will have to adopt a "go with the flow" (Ibid) approach.  Any changes in the climate could create a domino effect many aspects within and without the park.  For example, changes in the snow pack and melting rates can reduce the water flow in the rivers that the surrounding communities outside the region depend upon for drinking, agriculture, energy, and other purposes.  Changes in the river flows can affect fish spawning and encourage more invasive species (Ibid).

The United States National Parks Service is working to ensure that Yellowstone can withstand climate change.  For example, beetles and fungi have damaged the white bark pine trees in the park.  Scientists are planting more fungi-resistant white barks however, the tree are likely to be placed in higher elevations as temperature rise, according to NASA's Earth Observatory (Ibid).

Skara Brae
Orkney Islands, Scotland
orkneyjar.com

Climate change also poses a threat to archaeological sites around the world.  Among the more vulnerable sites are those along the coast such as the Neolithic village Skara Brae in Scotland's Orkney Island.  The village was inhabited between 3200 and 2200 B.C.E., overlapping the construction of Stonehenge.  Adam Markham pointed out the uniqueness of Skara Brae, "...while more European village of its age were made of wood, the village at this particular site was made from stone.  That means it's possible to get a better glimpse of how people actually lived--..." (Ibid).

Be that as it may, sometime archaeological sites can be vulnerable after they have been discovered because they are exposed to the elements.  According to Mechtild Rossler, in Skara Brae's case, the biggest dangers is that it can be literally washed aw ay.  Although there is a protective sea wall, it is unstable and could be breached; the areas not protected by the sea wall erodes after storms.  As we speak, scientists are working to document the extent of the danger to the site.  Tara Law writes, "Experts say that some coastal sites could potentially be protected by sea walls, breakwaters and dune restoration" (Ibid).  However because there are so many coastal archaeological sites like Skara Brae, implementing protective measures could be cost and time inefficient.

Climate change is the greatest risk we face today.  Combating it requires cultural changes as well as protective measures.  Believe the science and the scientists.  Historically, climate changes all the time but only humans can change their behaviors to slow down the pace.