Hello Everyone:
Yours Truly will out of the blogosphere tomorrow, go to spend time with Blogger Mum. Instead, Blogger Candidate Forum will step in with a pre-midterm election preview.
Dear readers, you can tell things are getting very close to the election wire because the president's tweets and rally speeches are getting more and more desparate. Just yesterday, Mr. Trump proudly proclaimed himself a nationalist and blaming the Democrats for the Central American caravan. Kind of makes Yours Truly miss all the "witch hunt" tweets. Seriously, with the Midterm Election just two weeks away the race for state and federal offices are tightening up. Today, The Forum would like begin a two-part look at the federal races, beginning with the Senate. Blogger's home state of California is pretty much a Democratic slam dunk. Let us begin.
What is at stake? The short answer is control of the upper chamber. As of writing, the Republicans hold 51 out of the 100 seats and the Democrats hold 49 seats. In order to gain control of the Senate, the Democrats would need to gain two seats. Sounds easy, right? Not exactly because in order to gain the majority, they would not only need to pick up two seats and not lose any of 13 competive elections. In order for the Republicans to retain control of the Senate, they cannot afford to lose any of the competitive races and pick up seats. Not so simple after all. In several states, the Democrats are playing defense and have limited opportunities to flip Republican held seats. Cooks Political Reports handicaps the races:
As of October 12, 2018, 26 Democratic seats are up for election, 14 seats (including one in Blogger's home State) are solid blue Democrat. Four seats are likely to remain blue. Three are leaning toward the Democrat column and five are toss ups. On the other side of aisle, three are solid red Republican--Utah is an open seat but likely to go to former 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. One leans Republican, the seats in Nevada and Texas are rated as tossups; Tennessee and Arizona are tossups (cookpolitical.com; Oct. 12, 2018; date accessed Oct, 23, 2018)
What are the Democrats' chances of regaining control of the Senate? For a brief moment in September, it looked as if the Democrats had a real opportunity to defy the harsh electoral map. Then came the Kavanaugh nomination. Blogger does not need to re-hash how bruising the hearings were but one that shocked Republicans back to life (nytimes.com; Sept. 24, 2018; date accessed Oct. 23, 2018). Republicans who were less than energetic about the midterms were re-energized. The nomination battle seemed to nationalize the race (Ibid; Oct. 22, 2018). As Election Day draws ever so close, higher Republican wattage is turning up the heat on Democrats in places where the senate race is particularly competitive. "Of the 13 most competitive races, 10 are in states President Trump carried" (Ibid).
Just how much of an impact did the Kavanaugh nomination process have on the Senate races? Let us take a look at the races in North Dakota and West Viriginia. In North Dakota, overall support for Brett Kavanaugh was 56 percent and 26 percent opposed. Republicans overwhelmingly supported the nomination--86 percent--and two percent opposed it. Only 15 percent of North Dakota Democrats supported the nomination and 71 percent opposed it (confirmkavanaugh.com; Sept 30, 2018; date accessed Oct. 23, 2018). This has made things tougher for incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp, especially with a more engaged Republican constituents (nbcnews.com; Oct. 3, 2018; date accessed Oct. 23, 2018). Senator Heitkamp was originally a "Yea" vote but Justice Kavanaugh's tantrum convinced her to change it to a "No" vote. In changing her vote, Senator Heitkamp was taking a huge political risk, one that could cost her seat.
Before the final vote, Senator Heitkamp already trailed by double digits in two recent polls (foxnews.com; Oct. 3, 2018; date accessed Oct. 23, 2018). Republicans believe that her opposition to Justice Kavanaugh benefitted her Republican challenger representative Kevin Cramer and rally conservative who might be willing to jump ship and vote her out (cnn.com; Oct. 4, 2018; date accessed Oct. 23, 2018). However, there might be an upside to the situation. Senator Heitkamp's "No" vote could energize North Dakota Democrats, which without them, she cannot possibly beat Rep. Cramer, and not alienate independents. She might also supercharge her online fundraising efforts. Senator Heitkamp was critical of Justice Kavanaugh during the confirmation, which means she avoided being accused of voting for him in the interest of political expediency (cnn.com; Oct. 4, 2018). Another factor might be, what does Senator Heidi Heitkamp have to lose. If she is going to be voted out, she might as well go out swinging and with a clear conscious
In West Virigina, overall support for now-Justice Kavanaugh was 58 percent and 28 percent opposed it. Like North Dakota, Republicans overwhelmingly supported the nomination--81 percent--a paltry 8 percent of Republicans opposed it. Nearly half of the state's Democrats--42 percent--supported the nomination and 45 percent opposed it (confirmkavanaugh.com; Sept 30, 2018). The Washington Examiner reported that incumbent Senator Joe Manchin's "Yea" vote for Justice Kavanaugh has expanded the lead in his race against Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (washingtonexaminer.com; Oct. 23, 2018). Senator Manchin's lead, as of writing, is 52 to 36 percent (media.graytvinc.com; Oct. 21, 2018; date accessed Oct. 23, 2018). The 16 point lead is the largest so far.
Finally, will the Senate turn blue or stay red? Politico predicts the Senate will stay Republican (politico.com; Oct. 23, 2018). FiveThirtyEight forecasts the Republicans has an 81.3 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate (fivethirtyeight.com; Oct. 23, 2018). CNN's best estimate gives the Republicans a four seat advantage in the next session: Democrats lose one seat and Republicans pick up three seats to create a 52-48 majority (cnn.com; Oct. 23, 2018).
Bottom line: VOTE
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