Brexit, The Hangover

http://www.citylab.com/politics/2016/06/britain-after-brexit/488603/?utm_source=nl_link3_062416

In or Out
corbettreport.com

Hello Everyone:

Welcome to the Brexit hangover edition of historicpca.blogspot.com.  As promised, we are going to talk about Great Britain's acrimonious leave taking of the European Union.  By now, now we all know the basic facts.  Following his re-election (outgoing) British Prime Minister David Cameron offered to hold a referendum on Britain's membership in the E.U. as a way to appease the loud voices coming from the United Kingdom Independent Party.  The question on the ballot was Remain in the E.U. or Leave.  Not too difficult to understand, right?  The hotly contested campaign CityLab 

Not rocket science
express.co.uk

culminated on Thursday June 23, 2016.  Early in the tally, it looked like a win for the Remain.  However, by dawn's early light citizens woke up to the cold hard reality of the nation turning in its membership card and secret decoder ring (made that one up), the Prime Minister announcing his resignation, the sterling pound devalued so much that the U.K. went from being the fifth largest to the sixth largest economy all before mid-morning coffee.  Shock and awe are not even sufficient enough to describe the reaction.  Perhaps Feargus O'Sullivan's  article, "Britain After Brexit," can help us sort a few things out.

(ex) PM David Cameron campaigning for Remain
newyorker.com

The Leave campaign won by a razor thin majority, 51.9 percent of the country voting Leave.  This is just barely more than half of the country.  The Remain effort earned 48.1 percent of the vote.  Here is the funny thing, no one actually thought this was a serious thing.  Nevertheless, both sides were quaking in their boots the next day.  Even funnier, in an ironic way, "...even the winners, who have managed to get this far without thrashing out a clear plan for what happens next."  Whoops. The very next morning, UKIP leader Nigel Farage told a news presenter that "...it was a mistake to promise £350 million a week for the National Health Service, an admission that might have seemed more bold if it had come 24 hours ago."  Denial, of course, is not just a river Cornwall.  The southwestern England region, which received substantial funding from the E.U., voted leave.  It even had the nerve to ask if its future funding will not be cut.  Is this a rhetorical question?

Brexit vote by region
bbc.com

Meanwhile, the Remain voters are absolutely beside themselves.  After all, the Leave campaign was rife with vile and hateful rhetoric and yet, the bad guys won.  To the bereft Remainers, the Leavers are now free to "...refashion a Britain that is smaller, meaner, and enmeshed in economic spiral."  Both sides like to think of themselves as the good guys but it is easier to agree on the fact that the vote exposed a huge schism.  Take a look at the map on the left-hand side which shows which regions voted stay (yellow) and leave (blue).  The divide is pretty stark: pro-Remain Northern Ireland, Scotland, and London versus pro-Leave everyone else.  Pro-Leave campaigner and potential new Prime Minster Boris Johnson was quoted, This vote does not mean the UK will be any way less united..."   (politico.eu) Really?  Then explain what Scotland is already considering another independence referendum.

A more detailed Brexit vote map
quota.com

The map on the left-hand side gives a more detailed breakdown of the vote, which appears to be less stark.  In heavily populated Northern cities such as Liverpool, Manchester (shout out to Team Nutmeg), Newcastle, and Leeds the vote went to Remain, albeit, by a smaller margin than London or Scotland, while a significant portion of Northern Ireland voted Leave.

Clearly, London and Scotland are the anomalies. In advance of the Brexit vote, Scotland's First Minster Nicola Sturgeon (the only one with any common sense at the moment) has already promised a new vote on independence.  Fears O'Sullivan goes so far as to say, "There's even talk of a joint continuation of E.U. membership for both London and Scotland, a sort of Free State of Scotlondia."  Seriously?  All jokes aside for the moment, news sources to confirm that MSP Sturgeon is in talks with London Lord Mayor Sadiq Khan but this just wishful thinking out loud.

Brexit vote by age
mondaynote.com

The Remain-Leave divide is more than geographic.  The exit polls clearly show that the majority of younger voters preferred Remain while older voters chose Leave.  Mr. O'Sullivan writes, "...thus shining the vote away from the people who will experience Brexit most keenly and for the longest."  These numbers are fueling anger among the younger voters but the truth is, this referendum had a high turnout and the Leave campaign won.  This indisputable fact has already caused regrets among those who voted Leave.  So much so, that there are petitions for a do-over vote circulating online.  People, what did you think this referendum was, a good way to kill a Thursday?  Yes, this was an advisory vote but guess what, it was still a vote.  Now you have to deal with the fall out.  One more thing, there are no do-overs.

No plans, no worries, right?
fridaymash.com

The socio-economic and age division are already ugly.  Feargus O'Sullivan writes, "In victory speeches, UKIP's Farage declared the result for 'real people,' a supposed victory against metropolitan elites."  In truth, while London may be perceived as a place for the socially and economic elite, it is also full of low- to moderate-income resident more isolate for the upper class than many posh rural residents.  Most of whom chose Remain, but according to UKIP's vision of Great Britain, they do not count because they live in the capital and possibly not Caucasian.  For now, uncertainty, anger, fear, and loathing in all corners has set upon the land.  The international repercussions have yet to be felt but that could take years.  In the meantime, fasten your seat belts, this ride is going to be a long bumpy one and it has only just begun.