Self-Perpetuating Cycle Of Destruction

 

Photo courtesy of Blogger

Hello Everyone:

A very happy new week to you from smog choked Blogger land.  Yours Truly is looking outside her window and can report that the skies are a little clearer than they have been.  Thursday and Friday were the worst days with acid yellow skies and an orange halo around the sun.  The skies above the San Francisco Bay Area were red from the smoke and ash, carried by the wind from the fires north of the region and elsewhere in Western United States.  The whole scene was apocalyptic.

The fires currently raging throughout the Pacific Northwest are yet another reminder that climate change is real and getting worse.  Yours Truly is not here today debate climate change except to quote California Governor Gavin Newsom, 

The hots are getting hotter.  The fries are getting drier.  The evidence is all around us--climate change is REAL (twitter.com/@GavinNewsom; Sept. 14, 2020).

Blogger is here today to discuss why build in places that are prone to annual natural disasters--i.e. fires, flood, mudslides, high waves?  Specifically, Blogger wants to talk about homes and communities in wildland urban interface areas (WUIA).  Let us begin with defining what wildland urban interface areas are.

redwoodcity.org

What is a wildland urban interface area?  A WUIA is,

...an area within or adjacent to an "at-risk community"... that is identified in recommendations to the Secretary of Agriculture in a Community  Wildfire Protection Plan or A WUI is any area for which a Community Wildfire Protection Plan is not in effect, but within 1/2 mile of the boundary of an "at risk community."

A WUI is also any area that is within 1 1/2 mile of an "at risk community" AND has sustained steep slopes that may affect wildfire behavior, or has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fuel break, or is in fuel condition class 3... (fs.usda.gov; Sept. 14, 2020)

An "At Risk Community" is

...defined as a community with the wildland urban interface listed in the Federal notice, "Wildland Urban Interface Communities with the Vicinity of Federal Lands that are at High Risk from Wildfire OR

A group of home and other structures with basic infrastructure with basic infrastructure and services within or adjacent federal land is defined as an "at risk community." (Ibid)

Blogger would like to focus on the WUIA in Southern California as an example of what can happen when the need for more housing combined with bad planning and regulatory missteps to create a recipe for self-perpetuating disaster.

Home under threat from the Bobcat Fire
San Gabriel Valley area, California
sgvtribune.com

It is easy to look at this image from the Bobcat Fire, now engulfing large parts of the San Gabriel Valley in Southern California, and say this, too, shall.  Taken in context to the raging COVID-19 pandemic and the worst smog in 26 years (latimes.com; Sept. 12, 2020; date accessed Sept. 14, 2020), makes that simple statement of acceptance of a temporary situation sound hollow.  The funny thing is, Southern California is still far from peak fire season.  It makes even the most laid back of Californian wonder if it is too late for the Golden State to recover from the never ending self-perpetuating cycle of destruction?  In a cruel twist of irony, "Californians, the nation's leaders on environmental awareness and climate change can't breathe" (Ibid).  They are partially to blame for the barbecue smell Yours Truly gets downwind of every morning.

California WUIA
cafiresci.org

This cycle of destruction it the result of too many people living close to highly combustible open spaces, after decades of disastrous planning and regulation, it really does not matter what kinds of eco-conscious measures you put place or how many environmentally-friendly cars you have.  California, is in one way or another, built to burn and climate change is (pun intended), adding fuel to the fire.

One person who best understands this situation is retired climatologist Bill Patzert.  Mr. Patzert spent decades with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California studying and warning the public about climate change.  He recently sat down with Los Angeles Times columnist Steve Lopez to talk about the cycle, while preparing for evacuation in case the Bobcat fire burning in San Gabriel started heading in his direction and he needed to make a quick getaway.

Bill Patzert
solarsystem.nasa.gov

Bill Patzert's research is dedicated to the solar system, the atmosphere, and the oceans.  He is the go-to expert on two of Southern California's most typical weather patterns: El Nino and La Nina and the relationship between the rise in sea-level, also a major threat to millions of people and jobs in the state and climate change (Ibid).

Over coffee, Mr. Patzert told Mr. Lopez that "we were closing in on a time when it wouldn't be be uncommon for the temperature to hit 115 degrees [Fahrenheit] in Pasadena" (Ibid).  No big surprise when you consider that as recently as this past Labor Day weekend Pasadena came within a degree of Mr. Patzert's prediction.  One positive outcome from all the smoke heat is that mask you have stuffed in your pocket or handbag comes in handy right about now.  Although a World War I or II-era gas mask might be more useful.  Bill Patzert told Mr. Lopez,

Look, we're living in a warmer world,... Especially in Southern California (Ibid)

We've created this essentially 20-million person megalopolis which creates its own heat, especially in summertime,... (Ibid)

The heat is generated by housing development, air conditioners, endless miles of asphalt traveled by millions of vehicles.

...So  the average temperature is about eight to nine degrees higher than it was in the early part of the 20th century (Ibid)

Ever the optimist, Mr. Lopez wondered if we hit a plateau.  Mr. Patzert quickly punctured that thought,

It's just the opposite,... (Ibid)

California population map
commons.wikimedia.org

Rapid growth has been the story of California and its source of strength.  Domestic and foreign immigrants came for the weather and work, contributing to growing the state into the fifth largest economy in the world.  Therefore, it is understandable that more people want to partake in the golden California dream and equally understandable that cities and towns want to welcome them.  The danger with that is the more people, the more sprawl.  Too many people living in unsafe areas, in houses unable to withstand fire and other natural disasters.

Fire has always been a natural part of the state's ecosystems.  However,

...in Northern California especially, so many people have moved 

"...to close to dangerous wilderness areas, with communities such as Paradise paying with the lives of its residents" (Ibid)

In Southern California, large communities have been built along corridors known for Santa Ana winds, more deadly during drought conditions, when vegetation is fuel.  Bill Patzert continued,

Another aspect is that 16 out of the last 20 years we've had below-normal rainfall in Southern California.  So by the end of summer, we're set up for fire.  And as you know, Ventura County in the 1970s had only 125,000 people and now it's almost 900,000.  San Diego's population has grown since the '50s by a factor of six, and average rainfall  there is 10 inches (latimes.com; Sept. 12, 2020).

More people and less water do not make for a sustainable future.  A good example of how climate change is affecting the state is found in one of California's key industries, wine.  California has a $40-billion industry (Ibid) and as Jason Haas of Tablas Creek Vineyard told Times columnist Steve Lopez, "water tables in the Paso Robles areas are being depleted, making it all the more important to develop dry-farming techniques" (Ibid).

Daniele Zaccaria, a water management specialist at the University of California, Davis, said "grower of all crops are wrestling with the unpredictable weather--too cold or too hot, too wet or too dry--that is associated with climate change.  Mr. Zaccaria said,

We're seeing extreme swings from one year to another, and it's visible in both temperature and the amount of water available... (Ibid)

True.  

Here is a fact, weather is not climate (Ibid) but changes in weather patterns can lead to all sorts of frightening consequences.  Here is another fact, climate change deniers have risen to power, denying the science behind the warmer temperatures, stronger storms, and dwindling water.  One more fact, we as a society need to rethink how we live, consume, and travel.  Place a moratorium on further development in high-risk fire zones.  Think, act, vote.