Hello Everyone:
It is a kind of cloudy Wednesday afternoon and time for Blogger Candidate Forum. Yours Truly is on Day 3 of the new device. So far, so good, no complaints. Big news of the day: The Justice Department announced that the much anticipated Special Counsel's report on Russian collusion in the 2016 Presidential Election will be completed next week. What is in it is anyone's guess. Early indications is that it may not be as earth shaking as anyone thinks it is. The next big argument will whether or not to release all or some of the report. That will be up to newly installed Attorney General William Barr. Mr. Donald Trump is hoping that AG Barr will suppress the report but the president may be disappointed. AG Barr is a man of principle and may allow some or all of the report to enter the public realm. Regardless, Blogger will be eager to talk to you about it. Moving on, shall we talk about the Democratic dozen.
The Democratic dozen are the the group of potential nominees, one of which will take on the president on November 3, 2020. Never too soon to start reminding you to check your voter registration or register to vote. Do it now.
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| Senator Bernie Sander (I-VT) cnn.com |
No question about it, Senator Sanders ignited revolution in the last presidential election cycle with his message of economic and social revolution. His name still has a certain cache. Unlike the previous outing, Senator Sanders starts out as a front runner, instead of a long shot candidate. He also enjoys name recognition, second only to former Vice President (and possible candidate) Joe Biden. However he does have some obstacles to overcome.
First, the Gentleman from Vermont failed to make inroads with African American voters, a vital part of the Democratic party base. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton beat Senator Sander by 57 points among African American voters in the average of state with exit polls (cnn.com; Feb. 20, 2019). Therefore, outreach to African American voters is a paramount priority. Next, labels matter and Senator Sanders did poorly with self-proclaimed Democrats, he lost them by 27 points in the last election cycle (Ibid). The math works against him because self-professed Democrats outnumbered self-identified independents by a 3:1 margin in the 2016 primaries (Ibid). The upside is that independents will compose a greater proportion of the electorate in the next cycle. Another problem for Senator Sanders is older voters. The Gentleman from Vermont was hugely popular with younger voters. Older voters, 45 years and older, make up 60 percent of the Democratic party. In 2016, he lost their vote by an average of 33 points in the 2016 primary (Ibid). He will need to improve that number with older voters, who tend to be more moderate (news.gallup.com; Feb. 19, 2019; date accessed Feb. 20, 2019), thus self-identified Democrats. Women voters are another obstacle Senator Sanders will have to overcome. In 2016, he lost the woman vote by 22 points (cnn.com; Feb. 20, 2019). With six women in the 2020 race, Senator Sanders will have to bring a stronger game to make himself more competitive with women. Finally, despite his claims of being the most liberal candidate in the field, for some he was not liberal enough. To cross the finish line, he will need to score more points with very liberal voters in ways he did not in the previous cycle. The numbers may be on his side this time and he could win pluralities with a big win among very liberal voters (Ibid). What about the rest of the pack?
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| The Democratic dozen nytimes.com |
So far we have twelve confirmed candidates for the Democratic nomination with two likely to run: VPOTUS Biden and retired Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz; one all but certain to run: Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper. Focusing on who is in the race right now, let us find out who has the best chance of winning the nomination and challenging Mr. Trump on November 3, 2020?
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is the favorite of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Her platform is focused on tougher financial regulation. She has a loyal base that could lift above the progressive firmament but her status as a liberal Massachusetts politician may be a tough sell in the Midwest and South. Senator Kamala Harris is the kind of Democrat that could outlast the field. Personally speaking, Blogger would like to see her on the ticket. The Lady from California which has the largest number of delegates and donors, all of which could work to her advantage. Senator Harris has a record of being a liberal voter in the Senate as well as tough prosecutor. It is her record as San Francisco's District Attorney and California's Attorney General that may be problematic with more liberal voters, who have accused her of being insensitive to the rights of the accused. (bbc.com; Feb. 20, 2019).
Former Obama administration Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro. The former representative from San Antonio, Texas is well liked and has the name recognition but if Beto O'Rourke gets in the race, the Gentleman from Texas could find himself playing second fiddle to Mr. O'Rourke. Blogger thinks he may take a run and Senator John Cronyn's seat. Senator Kristin Gillibrand is one the six women running for the nomination. The Lady from New York is campaigning on feminist platform, positioning herself as a #MeToo ally. However, she alienated Democrats by immediately calling for the resignation of former Minnesota Senator Al Franken's resignation and criticism of former President Bill Clinton's handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal (Ibid).
The Midwest brings us two intriguing candidates: Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. Senator Brown is positioning himself as the one who can win back the working class voters, who turned away from the Democratic party. He has not been shy about attacking the president over his "phony populism." The problem is if former VPOTUS Biden gets in the race, the Gentleman from Ohio's message could get drowned out by the popular Gentleman from Delaware. Senator Klobucher, like Senator Harris, is a former prosecutor with a reputation for being cool under fire. However, recent accusations of being abusive to her staff may dampen enthusiasm for her candidacy (Ibid).
Another dynamic candidate is New Jersey Senator Cory Booker. He is a gifted public speaker with a solid grounding in plight of the working class thanks to his time as mayor of blue-collar Newark. However, his view pro-big money views and 2012 defense of Utah Senator Mitt Romney's venture-capitalist background could be a liability. Another former mayor in the race is Mitch Landrieu. He gained notoriety in 2017 for leading the charge to take down the Confederate monuments in his hometown of New Orleans. One current mayor is in the race: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Peter Buttigieg. He ticks off two boxes, openly gay veteran. A millennial in the race, okay (Ibid). Hawai'i's Tulsi Gabbard also ticks off boxes: Iraq War veteran, first Hindu member of Congress, and early supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign. Another millennial in the race, fine (Ibid)
It is still way too soon to name a favorite but if Blogger had to pick candidates, it would be Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. We will come back to the subject again.
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