Blogger Candidate Forum: What Happened?

Hello Everyone:

Blogger Candidate Forum is bursting at the seams from all the excitement of the past 24-hours. First, Mr. Donald Trump's former personal attorney and fixer Michael Cohen pleads guilty to violating campaign finance laws, bank and tax fraud. During his statement, before federal court in New York, under oath, he implicated the president directed Mr. Cohen to payoff Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. Both women alledge they had affairs with him. Second, former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on eight counts of bank and tax fraud. The Forum would be lying if it said that it was feeling sad for both men. In fact, The Forum is sitting on a very bad case of schadenfreud.  However, The Forum will have to suppress the urge to laugh hysterically, pop champagne corks, and figure out what just happened.

What did just happen?

What happened was the most horrible, terrible day in the over year-and-half of the Trump administration. Two massive, rain filled, dark clouds nearly simultaneously burst open, dumping sheets of rain all over the President.  Follow along:

Paul Manafort, the person who led the Trump campaign for a short five months in 2016, was found guilty of eight financial crimes.  Mr. Manafort was originally charged with eighteen financial crimes but the jury deadlocked on ten out of the eighteen, leading to the judge to declare a mistrial on those counts.

Literally within minutes, Mr. Cohen agreed to plead guilty with the Southern District of New York.  Per the plea agreement, Mr. Cohen admitted guilty on eight counts and acknowledge that he discussed or made payments to prevent damaging information from entering the public domain, at the direction and in coordination with a candidate for federal office.  The candidate for federal office is indirect reference to Mr. Trump.

Both stories are massive deals but in terms of which worse, the Cohen plea is the biggest threat and has the most direct impact on the president.  

Way back in February, Mr. Cohen confirmed discussing or making payments to porn actor Ms. Daniels (Stephanie Clifford) and former Playboy model Ms. McDougal. At first, Mr. Cohen said he paid Ms. Daniels out of his pocket without the direct or indirect knowledge of said candidate for federal office.  Like anyone believed that story.  At the time, Mr. Cohen said:

In a private transaction in 2016, I used my own personal funds to facilitate a payment of $130,000 to Ms. Stephanie Clifford. Neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump campaign was a party to the transaction with Ms. Clifford, and neither reimbursed me for the payment, either directly or indirectly. (cnn.org; Aug. 21, 2018; date accessed Aug. 22, 2018)

Yesterday, he admitted what the public domain figured out already--that was not true.

What does it mean for the president?

In an interview with Slate magazine's (slate.com; date accessed Aug. 22, 2018) Isaac Chotiner, CNN legal analyst and New Yorker staff writer Jeffrey Toobin, explained what Mr. Manafort's conviction and Mr. Cohen's guilty means.  Mr. Toobin told Slate,

There is one specify and one general thing that have changed. The specific thing is you have the president directly and explicitly accused of criminal conduct, which is very substantially different from from where we have been before.... The general thing is that here you have on the same day, within an hour of one another, the chairman of the president's campaign, and his personal attorney and close associate, both convicted of or pleading guilty to serious felonies...

Essentially, Mr. Trump has been named an unindicted co-conspirator, in the same manner as the late President Richard M. Nixon was named an unindicted co-conspirator during the Watergate investigation

What is the connection to the Mueller investigation?

Paul Manafort's conviction and Michael Cohen's guilty plea were certainly major milestones for Robert Mueller and his team of 17 angry Dems. Both Messrs. Manafort and Cohen were caught up in the wide sweeping Mueller investigation. They were not the only ones--as of today, two members of Congress and early endorsers of Mr. Trump, were recently indicted for related charges (usatoday.com; date accessed Aug. 22, 2018). 

Lucien Bruggeman of ABC News reported that Lanny Davis told George Stephanopoulous that "his client has information that would be of 'interest' to special, counsel Robert Mueller and would not accept any pardon from the president" (abcnews.go.com; date accessed Aug. 22, 2018). 

How credible would Mr. Cohen's information be?  National Public Radio's Ailsa Chang asked Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney who now teaches law at the University of Michigan, how reliable would Mr. Cohen be.  Ms, McQuade said,

...Michael Cohen is a witness who will be met with some skepticism. If he is seeking to reduce his own criminal exposure--or the fact that he has been out ere talking on the media could create some skepticism. So I think what they'll want to do is look for ways to corroborate his information...(npr.org; July 27, 2018; date accessed Aug. 22, 2018)

Ms. McQuade also believes that Mr. Cohen is potentially valuable to the Russia investigation (Ibid). However, before you start making more popcorn, how valuable will he will depend on what he has to say.  Attorney-client privilege will only offer limited protection because lawyers are legally obliged to divulge any potentially or actual criminal activity of their clients.

Both Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen are facing lengthy federal prison sentences. Mr. Manafort made a bet that he would be acquitted and decided to not offer a defense. He lost and still faces charges of bank fraud. The prospect of spending most of his adult life behind bars may give him incentive to cooperate with the special counsel. Mr. Cohen is due to be sentenced on December 12 and maybe looking to reduce his time in prison. 

The I-word

The I-word: impeachment.  Not yet.  Democrats in the House of Representatives are remaining quiet about this controversial move and they do not have the votes, right now.  Democrats are taking a cautious approach--they are waiting to read the report from he special counsel.  To his credit Mr. Mueller has been extremely tight lipped about what he and his team have discovered.  The special counsel is being thorough and not even hinting at what they have found.  Stay tuned.  September looks to be a very wild month. 

Midterms

Yesterday's courtroom dramas certainly put the subject of impeachment in play for the 2018 Midterm elections. Per Justice Department guidelines, a sitting president cannot be indicted for alleged criminal activities in office (justic.gov; Oct. 16, 2000; date accessed Aug. 22, 2018) The president can be liable for criminal activity once leaving office. The U.S. Constitution contains a provision for impeachment and removal from office of cabinet officials, including the president. That job falls to Congress.  

That said, Republican candidates for the House and Senate will make the case that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for impeachment. Wee premature since no one knows what the special counsel has to say. If the Democrats are smart, they will focus on the issues they need to get them elected. When the question of impeachment comes up during the campaign (it will, if it has not already), the wise answer will be wait and see.

Pace yourselves with popcorn and hold on tight.  Things are about to get really rocky and Blogger Candidate Forum will be with you.