Blogger Candidate Forum: Scorched Earth

Hello Everyone:

It is a warm Wednesday and time for Blogger Candidate Forum.  The scent of desparation is in air.  Just today, Mr. Donald Trump's legal team rejected the latest offer from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. The special counsel offered to let Mr. Trump answer half his questions in person and half in written form. It sounds like a fair offer but the president's attorneys argued that it would a perjury trap.  Sounds like the one of the attorneys, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, is extremely worried that the president will incriminate himself and feels that the president should remain silent. That is his right but if Mr. Trump has nothing hide, then why not answer the Special Counsel's questions in person?  Perhaps, the only thing left to do is subpoena the president.  Speaking of desparation, let us talk about the Republican midterm strategy.

The Republicans are worried.  They are worried that they will lose their majority in Congress following the midterm election NOVEMBER 6, which reminds Yours Truly, make sure you are registered to vote.  If have not registered to vote, stop reading and to vote, and go to usa.gov for more information.  Okay, having made the pitch, everyone inhale the pungent fragrance of desparation.  Yours Truly is detecting a smoky note of scorched earth.  This perfume is bottled by the Republic party as an antidote to the very real possibility of not only losing their coveted majority in Congress but also the specter of a more progressive agenda.  Not that a progressive agenda is a bad thing, in fact it could be a good thing. The Republicans are betting the house, literally and metaphorically, that scorched earth will let the hang on their majority. What is the definition of scorched earth?

The Oxford Learner's Dictionaries defines scorched earth, "(in a war) a policy of destroying anything in a particular area that may be useful to the enemy" (oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com; date accessed Aug.  8, 2018).  If we apply this definition to the upcoming elections, it means that the Republican Party is doing everything and anything to prevent a Democratic takeover of Congress, in particular the House.  Why is the House of Representives this year?

In January of this, Andrew Prokop of Vox wrote that the upcoming midterm are crucial "...not just in shaping the future of Donald Trump's presidency, but in shaping the American political landscape for a great many years to com" (vox.com; Jan. 2, 2018; date accessed Aug. 8, 2018). Mr. Prokop lists five things that could happen if the Democrats assumed the majority in Congress: First, the Republican legislative agenda would be dead.  Second, more investigations into the Trump administration's alleged shenanigans.  A Democratic majority in either chamber would give them subpoena power and compel witnesses to testify.  While we are on the subject, the special counsel's investigation into possible connections between the Trump campaign and Russia will get more aggressive.  Would it lead to impeachment?  Who knows?  Next, the president would be greatly constrained on judicial and other nominees.  Fourth, Republican state government that flip could bring about progressive legislation.  Finally, a big chunk of the 2021 redistricting will be determined by the 2018 election. (Ibid)  Which brings us to yesterday's special election in Ohio.

In four words, too close to call.  The state of Ohio held a special election yesterday to fill the 12th congressional district seat that has been in Republican hands for the past three decades.  The contest pitted Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor.  As of writing, Mr. Balderson leads by a mini-minuscule 0.9-percentage-point, with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted.  The Republican Party spent millions of dollars to avoid an embarrassing loss, and the president visited the district days before the election. 

Another hotly contested race is the Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary.  The president has endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach and this race will test the power of his endorsements.  Eric Bradber and Gregory Kreig of CNN (cnn.com; date accessed Aug. 8, 2018) breakdown the takeaways from yesterday's elections.

First, it is panic time for the Republicans.  The Ohio contest is another indication that the Republican House majority is in deep trouble.  The 12th district in play has voted Republican in the last two presidential contests--both Mr. Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney each won by 11-percentage-points. There are 68 Republican-held House seats in play that favor the Democrats. The Democrats only need to win 23 seats to regain the House.

Democratic voters are energized.  Suburban and urban voters are coming to the polls at higher rates than their rural more conservative counterparts.  The Republican are realizing that they cannot swamp every district as they did with the Ohio 12th district. This has them deploying the scorched earth approach elections.  Spend millions of dollars, bring in the president, and hope for total victory.

Second, incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer and his challenger Secretary of State Kris Kobach are still awaiting the results of their primary.  Right now, the race is a dead heat.  If the controversial Mr. Kobach, endorsed by the president, loses, it would be a bigly embarrassment for the president who has been on a winning streak.  

Johnson County is the place to watch.  This heavily populated suburb of Kansas City has yet to report their results.  There is still a lot of votes in the county left to count that could swing the election one way or the other.  

Third, Missouri held a referendum yesterday on the state's right-to-work law.  The right-to-work would end the practice of forcing non-Union employees to pay into a collective bargaining fund.  A petition to get the intiative on the ballot gathered 300,000 signatures.  The point was to put the referendum on the August ballot, when a strong Republican turnout was expected unlike the November election when pro-Union Democrats show up in force.  The move backfired spectacularly

MIssouri voters rejected the measure by a 2-to-1 margin, an amazing defeat for a Republican priority in state the president won by 19 percentage points.  This was a major victory for unions, which invested $16 million in the campaign. It could signal a turning point in the Midwest, after years of Republican victories over unions in Wisconsin and Indiana.

Finally, Democratic Socialism does play well in the Midwest.  Candidates endorsed by political newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) did not fare too well in the Michigan Democratic gubernatorial primary. In Missouri, Cori Bush lost her bid to unseat incumbent Representative William Lacy Clay, despite support from Ms. Ocasio-Cortez.  

Bottom line, the Republicans are in panic mode too soon in the election which means two things. First, the Democrats are in position to either take the House or, at the very least, gain more seats to put them within striking distance to regain the majority in two years.  Second, the Republicans are out of anything substantive to say so they have resorted to scorched earth campaigning in hopes of stemming the tide.