The Changing Suburban Population

http://www.citylab.com/housing/07/white-people-arent-driving-growth-in-the/399659

"White Gains and Losses in Cities and Suburbs"
2000 and 2010 U.S. Census
citylab.com

Hello Everyone:

Yours truly needed to go through the Drop Box folder again and dig out an article or two. Today we are in suburbia.  In suburbia, the racial demographics are changing.  In his article for CityLab, "White People Aren't Driving Growth in the Suburbs," Kriston Capps reports, "The next two decades will see a profound shift in the racial of America's suburbs..."  More specifically, according Brookings Institute demographer William H. Frey in his book Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America, the shift in racial demographics will be profound.

In his study for the Brookings Institute, Mr. Frey explained that "...white populations accounted for just 9 percent of the population growth of the suburbs (in the 100 largest metro areas) between 2000 and 2010."  The Metropolitan Policy Program recently released an excellent map detailing which suburbs gained and lost Caucasian residents.  The map shows that some metropolitan areas are already setting themselves apart from the population trend that drove growth over the past fifty years: "white losses in cities, white gains in suburbs."

Table 1: "Changes in Population and Population Share"
Urban Institute
citylab.com

Be that as it may, the traditional 20th-century pattern is still valid in Dallas and San Antonio, Texas; St. Louis, Missouri; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Detroit, Michigan.  Further, a number of large metropolitan areas posted gains in white populations in both urban and suburban areas: Seattle, Washington, Portland, Austin, Texas. Portland, Oregon; several cities in North and South Carolina.  However, this pattern is not going to last for a sustained period of time.

Kriston Capps writes, "One-third of large metro-areas suburbs witnessed declines in their white populations, with the largest losses in suburbs surrounding New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.  More metro areas will follow in this coastal vein than in the one of recent white-suburban growth seen in the Sun Belt."

Looking into the not-to-distant future, the year 2030, the Urban Institute forecasts Caucasian losses almost everywhere.  Mr. Capps writes, "Earlier this year a number of researchers published a comprehensive report, Mapping America's Future, (datatools.urban.org/features/mapping-americas-future) on growth projections between 2010 and 2030."   The authors of the study four commuting zones: Atlanta, Georgia; Washington DC; Las Vegas, Nevada; Youngstown, Ohio.  In an aside, Mr. Capps uses the Economic Research Service's definition of commuting zone:geographic zones that cross urban, suburban, and county boundaries to represent local economies. (http://www.ers.usda.gov/data.../commuting-zones-and-labor-market-areas.aspx)

Youngstown, Ohio
en.wikipedia.org

The above table presents data that suggest that absolute growth is not going to happen in all the four study areas.  For example, in the Youngstown commuting zone, the Caucasian population is predicted to greatly shrink by 2030, at a more rapid pace that other demographic groups can replace it.  However in the nation's capital, Las Vegas, and Atlanta CZs, the white population is forecasted to grow but at a much lower rate than Latino or African-American populations.  Mr. Capps concludes, "So the share of the white population in the larger D.C. region (including its Maryland and Virginia suburbs) will shrink by maybe 6 percent.  The black population may shrink by 6 percent as well.  But the Hispanic population and non-Hispanic-other populations will enjoy some sweet growth: 6 and 7 percent respectively."

Glenwood Park
Atlanta, Georgia
Photograph by F. Kaid Benfield
huffingtonpost.com

The figures for the share of Caucasian populations in Atlanta and Las Vegas CZs are alarming.  The share of the white population in Atlanta and its surrounding areas is forecasted to drop by almost 17 percent.  The share of Caucasian population in Las Vegas is predicted to drop by 15 percent.  In an another aside, Mr. Capps writes, "Another way to put it: the share of minorities living in the Atlanta and Las Vegas areas may rise 16.5 and 15.2 percent respectively. The bottom line, American is becoming, for better or worse, is becoming a more diverse nation fueled by the population boom among young minority families.  These families are transplanting themselves to the suburbs, long the bastion of the white populations.  This means, the suburbs are becoming more diverse as cities deal with new political and economic challenges as the suburbs grow poorer, forcing long time residents to deal with the new neighbors.  Yours truly would like to add this one final thought, the changing suburban demographic will play a role in the 2016 Presidential election cycle as minority suburbanites look at candidates that reflect their values.