All Hail Suburbia?

bettercities.net/news-opinion/blog/robert-steutevill/20161/triumph-far-fethced-story

Is suburbia making a come back?  According to Joel Kotkin the revival of cities and the decline and fall of suburbia is a fraud perpetrated a growing list of elitists and urbanist such as Edward Glaeser, Richard Florida, Alan Ehrenhalt, Christopher, Leinberger, James Howard, Kunstler, Peter Katz, and so on.  These gentlemen and others should be honored because according to Mr. Kotkin, they are part of a "hate affair" with suburbia that goes back to Jane Jacobs and William H. Whyte.  What is the evidence to support this claim?  The evidence is a report from the Brookings Institute that states in 91 of 100 of american metropolitan centers, the share of regional jobs in downtowns declined from 2000 to 2010, while the distant suburbs gained in this category.  The term use is "job sprawl."  Cities that contradicted this trend were many were many of the largest metro areas and "job sprawl" diminished when sprawl became a crawl.  Oddly, on the road to the heralded triumph of the cities, the suburbs not only survived but began to regain their attractiveness as Americans continued to aspire to single family homes.  So what's going on?

Mr. Steuteville points out that the Brookings Institute report drew a target around the the main downtown area of each metropolitan region and counted jobs within a three mile radius, from three to ten miles, and ten to twenty-five miles radius.  The latter is an area fifty-eight times larger than the core area.  With that much land, greater population, and far lower job density-it's no shock that the share of jobs in outer suburbia rose relative to downtown.  Until the crash in the housing market in 2007, there were a lot of businesses such as Lowe's, Bed, Bath & Beyond, and assorted fast food places built in the outer areas.  Taking all of this into account, the downtown areas will continue to see a decline in the share of regional jobs even if there is a modest growth in the metropolitan areas.

However, Mr. Steuteville points to flaws in Mr. Kotkin's analysis.  First, Mr. Kotkin appears to disregard a number of inconvenient fact and trends that don't fit his narrative the inevitable march toward lower density generation after generation.  Real estate values have declined in the automobile-centric suburbs relative to more compact mixed-use neighborhoods.  Yet, there is a growing preference for rental housing and multifamily housing development has recovered more quickly than single family housing development.  This is quite true given the upswing in the number of multiple family housing developments in Southern California.  We're not just taking about faceless apartment buildings, this includes garden apartments in the suburbs.  I'm thinking Playa Vista as an example.  These garden apartments are being built in urban, transit oriented neighborhoods.

Another flaw in Joel Kotkin's theory is that the issue isn't about single-family versus multifamily housing; suburbia versus city; or lower density versus higher density.  The real issue is walkable places versus auto-centric places.  Being able to walk to places, what a concept.  Walkable urban places is the direction where the market is trending.  Personally speaking, I live in an area of Los Angeles where I can easily walk to grocery stores, banks, hair salons, and coffee places.  This trend is evidenced from many industry sources such as the Urban Land Institute (http://www.uli.org). Emerging Trends in Real Estate, and the National Association of Realtors  (http://www.realtor.org), can be found in the downtown, in urban neighborhoods far from downtown, and the suburbs.  Walkable urban neighborhoods often include single family house as well as mixed-use, more compact and better connected than the far suburbs.  There's a difference between small-lot single family homes in a mixed-use neighborhood and a large-lot house isolated in the suburbs like the difference between a strip mall and main street.

Mr. Steuteville uses the example of the Allentown in Buffalo, New York as his example of urban depopulation, which lost most of its residents since 1950.  Twenty-five years ago, Allentown was languishing but is now thriving and downtown Buffalo is on the rise.  This comeback was facilitated by the fact that Allentown is close to downtown but many of the walkable neighborhoods are far from the downtown neighborhood in the country's metropolitan areas are also thriving.  Another example is Washington DC with its rising share of commercial development taking place in the walkable urban places (WalkUPs), serviced by transit.  The majority of which are in suburbs.  The WalkUPs command seventy-five percent of auto-centric commercial development, whereas about twenty-five years ago, suburban office parks had the lion share of auto-oriented commercial development..  Forty-eight percent of the capitol's commercial development is taking place in WalkUPs, about less than one percent of land area.  Philadelphia, not one of the "Big 6" real estate markets and struggling city, is seeing a similar trend, according to a University of Pennsylvania study (http://www.design.upenn.edu/city-regional-planning).  Compact, urban places, both downtown and suburban areas performed better during the Great Recession.  Perhaps this is a lesson that the city of Detroit, Michigan can learn.

Mr. Kotkin does refer to a few important trends that urbanist should pay attention to such how to accommodate single-family housing in walkable neighborhoods, something that new urbanists have been working with for over three decades.  However, new urbanists haven't completely resolved the the problem, Andreas Duany and Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk; smart growth advocates have completely ignored it, really?  Yes, we need sustainable single-family housing and Mr. Kotkin is on target when he says that a large number of Americans prefer a separate house on a lot.  Blame or applaud the English for this one.  Further, the suburbs are becoming more diverse as many immigrant groups are moving out from the urban areas.  Fantastic, but this doesn't always translate into a need for access to transit and walkability.  Diversity combined with a trend toward rental housing in suburbia is a double-edged sword for suburbia which has based its attractiveness on isolation and exclusivity.

Is the revival of the cities a fraud and suburbia making a comeback?  Discuss]