So Sue Us

http://www.nytimes.com; March 6, 2018

Hello Everyone:

Blogger Candidate Forum wanted to pop in for a Tuesday appearance.  The Forum would like to commend Mr. Trump for congratulating newly "re-elected" Russian President Vladimir Putin on his sham victory.  Do American presidents really congratulate dictators?  Are we doing that now?  Seriously?  Second, Cambridge Analytica.  Love the way Mr. Trump's campaign used the data company to mine and misuse personal data from at least 50 million Facebook users.  Slime upon slime when you consider that former White House strategist Steve Bannon is the company's former vice president and White House counselor Kellyanne Conway was a consultant for Cambridge Analytica.  Anyway, The Forum has more important things to shake it well manicured finger at, like Mr. Trump's legal war on California.

Alright Mr. Trump, we, the good citizens of California get it.  You are not exactly our biggest fan.  You especially are not fan of our immigration policy.  You disagree with our immigration policy so much that recently filed a lawsuit as a sort of pre-emptive strike against our liberal sanctuary laws.  No worries, you can file all the lawsuits you want, just remember we have the most electoral votes and the largest representation in Congress.  You want anything passed or want to be re-elected, you have deal with us.  Allow Blogger to explain.

Katie Benner and Jennifer Medina report in their The New York Times article, "Trump Adminsitration Sues California Over Immigration Laws," "The Justice Department sued California; Gov. Jerry Brown; and the state's attorney general, Xavier Becerra, over three state laws passed in recent months, saying they made it impossible for federal immigration officials to do thei jobs and deport criminals who were born outside the United States."  The Justice Department deemed these laws unconstitutional and requested a judge to block them.

The lawsuit represents the DOJ's boldest strike against California, one of  staunchest opponents of the administration's efforts curtail immigration (nytimes.com; Jan. 18, 2017; date accessed Mar. 20, 2018).  It is also a warning to Democratic members of Congress and elected officials who promulgate sanctuary policies that provide protections for undocumented immigrants.

In planned remarks at a law enforcement event in California's capital city Sacramento , United States Attorney General Jeff Sessions said,

The Department of Justice and the Trump administration are going in to fight these unjust, unfair and unconstitutional policies that have been imposed on you.... I believe that we are going to win.

Good luck.

The legal battle pits immigration hard liners Messr Trump and Sessions against Gov. Brown and Mr. Becerra, outspoken adversaries (Ibid; Jan. 7, 2018) "who have helped energized opposition to Mr. Trump and vowed to preserve the progressive values that they believe California embodies."

According to the lawsuit, the immigration policies,

...reflect a deliberate effort by California to obstruct the United States' enforcement of federal immigration law...

It goes on to say that "the laws regulate private entities that want to cooperate with the federal authorities and

...impede consultation and communication between federal and state law enforcement officials.

In a brilliant response, Gov. Brown called the lawsuit a political stunt, expertly trolling the president,

At a time of unprecedented political turmoil, Jeff Sessions has come to California to further divide and polarize America...Jeff, these political stunt may be the norm in Washington, but they don't work here.  SAD!!!

California has been lock in combat with the Trump administration since the end of the 2016 Presidential Election, "standing in opposition on a number of issues, including marijuana, environmental regulations and taxes."  However, immigration had become the most contentious fight, "with local officials assuring undocumented immigration that they would do all they could to protect them."

In 2017, California enacted its sanctuary laws--as this week, the California declared itself a sanctuary state and is already facing a challenge from one Orange County city--which restricts how and when local law enforcement can work with federal immigration enforcement officers.  Both Messr Sessions and Trump have threatened to withdraw federal grant money from cities and states (Ibid; July 26, 2017) with sanctuary laws to shield undocumented immigrants.  The president and attorney general argue that "the policies flout federal laws and help criminals evade deportation."

Further, the DOJ asked 23 jurisdictions (Ibid; Jan. 24, 2018) across the nation this year to "provide documentation that they had not kept information from federal immigration authorities, or receive a subpoena for the information."  Additionally Justice is looking at possible criminal charges (Ibid; Jan. 18, 2018) for local politicians who pass sanctuary policies.  Nice, jail the opposition.

The lawsuit, filed in Sacramento Federal District Court, is the first against jurisdiction or state over its immigration policies filed by Mr. Sessions' Department of Justice.  The DOJ has alluded to the possibility of other lawsuits against jurisdictions whose policies are at odds with the federal government's authority on immigration.  According to the Centern for Immigration Studies,"Colorado, Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Vermont have state sanctuary laws as do cities and counties in more than a dozen states,..."

The California Values Act, strictly curtails state and municipal agencies from sharing information with federal law enforcement officers about criminals or suspect unless they have been convicted of felony offenses.  The law took effect on January 1, 2018 and "was the centerpiece of the State Legislature's effort to thwart the Trumpadministration's immigration policies."

No sooner had the ink dried on the CVA, acting United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement Thomas D. Homan announced that California should expect to see a lot more deportation officers and elected officials allied with the sanctuary laws should be arrested.  Yes, precisely.  Why not waste the precious time of police and sheriff's deputies by arresting civic leaders for acting on their political conscience.

To wit, Mr. Homan and three other immigration and border protection officials filed declarations, in conjunctions with the suit, "claiming that California's laws had already negatively affected their work."

Democratic California State Senate leader and candidate for United States Senator Kevin de Leon said,

The administration is just angry that state has stood up to them--one that embraces diversity and inclusivity and is the sixth-largest economy in the world thanks to the hard-working immigrants who want to become American citizens.

Mr. de Leon wrote one of the sanctuary city laws and is named in the suit.

The California state legislature also passed the Immigratin Worker Protection Act (oag.ca.gov; date accessed Mar. 20, 2018), which "prohibits local business from allowing immigration to gain access to employee records without a court order or subpoena."  State Attorney General Xavier Becerra warned that violators could face a fine of up to $10,000.

Putting its state funding where its immigration policy is, the current state budget includes a prohibition on new contracts for immigration detention and give the state attorney general the power to oversee all state immigration detention centers.

Further, the state, together with several jurisdictions including San Francico and Sacramento, have established legal defense funds to help defend immigrants during deportation matters.

Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg expressed his concern,

I'm worried about the 'Dreamers,' hard-working immigrants families and law-abiding who are just trying to make their like the rest us,.... Civil disobedience is a respectful way to show your love for country.

Tensions between local and federal officials came to boil two weeks ago, when Oakland, California mayor Libby Schaaf publicly warned (nytimes.com; Feb. 28, 2018; date accessed Mar. 20, 2018) of an impending ICE action.  Mr. Homan compared the mayor's action to a gang lookout yelling, Police! adding that "she gave people living in the United States illegally a chance to flee."  He said, "her warning meant that the federal immigration authorities arrested about 200 people rather than the 1,000 they anticipated rounding up."

Thomas Homan and other federal official have warned about putting California in its cross hairs as it increases immigration enforcement efforts, essentially, the number of people detained has not drastically increased to date.  Katie Benner and Jennifer Medina write, "In December, the most recent for which data is available 1,715 unauthorized immigrants in California were arrested by ICE, compared with 1,379 in December 2016."

The lawsuit over immigration is not the first time the DOJ sued a state.  During President Obama's administration, the department filed a lawsuit against the state of Georgia (justice.gov; Aug. 23, 2016; date Mar. 20, 2018) for segregating disabled students from classrooms and sued North Carolina over its infamous HB1 which restricted bathroom use for transgender citizens (Ibid; May 9, 2016), later withdrawn by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

Speaking on the phone with reporters,  California state attorney general Xavier Becerra expressed confidence that California would win in court; state and federal laws were not in conflict.  Mr. Becerra said,

In California, our state laws work in concert with federal law,.... Our teams work together to go after drug dealers and go after gang violence.  What we won't do is change from being focused on public safety.  We're in the business of public safety, not deportation.

Mr. Becerra was not surprised about the lawsuit, mentioning that the state had already scored legal battles against the current administration.  He said,

We've seen this B-rated movie before,.... We're not doing their bidding on immigration enforcement and deportation.

Nor should any state.  

The Coming Storm

http://www.citylab.com; March 8, 2018

Hello Everyone:

Welcome to a fresh week on the blog.  If you have been following the real life soap opera that is the Trump administration, you probably know more than you need to about the abrupt dismissal of Federal Bureau of Investigation Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and the lawsuit filed by the president's lawyers, against Stormy Daniels, claiming she violated the non-disclosure agreement.  Ick overload if you ask Blogger, who shared the current events, over dinner, with Blogger Mum.  Of course there was the expected weekend presidential Twitter rant.  Really, POTUS's lawyers should finally take away his phone, smashed, and toss into The Potomac River.  Alright, enough about that.  Shall we move on to something more constructive?

Since 1957, Toy "R" Us has been a part of American childhood.  Its familiar tag line, "I wanna be a Toys 'R' Us kid and its mascot Geoffrey the giraffe, were familiar to children everywhere.  Toys "R" Us has been a ubiquitous part of the American retail landscape like Macy's department store and Best Buy.  Laura Bliss writes in her CityLab article "The Ticking Time Bomb for Suburban Retail,"Thanks largely to the rise of e-commerce, chains like Macy's, Toys 'R' Us, and Best Buy are shuttering faster than analysts predicted even a year ago (bloomberg.com; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018) with at least 24 major retailers (foxbusinesses.com; Mar. 14, 2018; date accessed Mar.19, 2018) planning store closures in 2018 (clark.com; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018)."

According to some forecasters, there is a looming retail apocalypse looming in the horizon.  It is not just the fault of e-commerce.  Rick Stein, the founder of the Columbus, Ohio-based planning consulting firm Urban Decision Group, told Ms. Bliss, "As overbuilt malls, corporate mergers, and autonomous vehicles converge," the ingredients are in place for a major disruption.

Speaking at March 5th panel in Portland , Oregon, Mr. Stein laid out the circumstances for which commercial areas wil be hardest hit by new consumer habits combined with technology: suburban car-oriented retail.

Here is a real fact, "American retail is overbuilt by about 50 percent, according to Stein.  With about 24 square feet per capita, the U.S. has by far the most retail space of any country in the world, with about 25 percent more than the next closest country, Canada."  This is according to the information from the publicly traded real-estate group GGP and the financial blog Zero Hedge.  In Blogger's own neighborhood, there are two major malls within two miles of each other.

By contrast, megamalls, like Costa Mesa, California's South Coast Plaza, and luxury shopping centers in more affluent areas have been more successful, mid-sized to large "regional" retail hubs and strip malls (there 7,500) around the United States, are struggling with vacanies and decreasing profits (icsc.org; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018).  Ms. Bliss reports, "States like Nevada, Arizona, Vrginia, Ohio, and New Jersey have some of the most over abundant big box and strip mall properties, and they're increasingly overexposed as more Americans shop online and take advantage of fast delivery speeds."

Online retailers recognize "the need for speed."  Amazon offers "Prime Now," a two-hour delivery service on about 25,000 items to Prime members in at least 30 American cities.  Laura Bliss elaborates, "In some of them, including Colmbus, customers can pay for delivery speeds of one hour and faster" (myfox28columbus.com; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018).  Rick Stein conceded, One-hour delivery, for every U.S. market is inevitable.  Perhaps,within the next few years.

Will Amazon be the first online retailer to make one-hour or less delivery the standard?  Maybe.  Given its recent acquisition of grocery chain Whole Foods, Amazon has "a real-estat foothold in nearly 500 locations near affluent households.  Or maybe it's Walmart, with its 5,000 locations and strong presence in more rural communities."  Speaking at Urbanism Next, a conference dedicated to autonomous vehicles, e-commerce, and the sharing economy hosted by the University of Oregon, Mtr. Stein commented, Their reach is absolutely insane.

Maybe pharmacy chain CVS will beat out Amazon and Walmart.  "Some 82 percent of the U.S. population lives within a 15-minute drive of its 11,000 locations."  Yours Truly lives within a short walk to two CVS stores.  At the current pace of corporate mergers and acquisition (businessinsider.com; Aug. 25, 2018; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018), real estate footholds at advancing at a rapid clip.  Imagine if Amazon absorbed CVS, as its widely speculated move into the drugstore business (qz.com; Dec. , 2017; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018)?  This prize would establish the e-commerce behemoth with "a convenient 'hub and spoke' network for snap-of-the-finger deliveries in virtually every U.S.market."  If you go to citylab.com; Mar. 8, 2018, you can view the map generated by Mr. Stein which illustrates the hub-and-spoke concept in the Columbus region.

It is theoretical, when you come to think of it.  Regardless which corporate giant starts one-hour deliver or when, brick and mortar retail will likely suffer a serious blow, once it becomes easier to shop from the comfort of your own home.  Working with Jason Sudy and Justin Robbins, consultants at Side Street Plann OHM Advisors respectively, Mr. Stein developed a tool for predicting which developed commercial property is most vulnerable to financial losses and closures.  They used data from InfoGroup, Price Waterhouse Coopers, and Forbes, to create a model that takes into account several determinants: location, the mix of retail in a given area, population density, homeownership rates, income, the age of the structure, parking, and household spending in metropolitans around the U.S.

Laura Bliss writes, "Different development patterns are more susceptible to vacanies and flipping than others, the model shows--especially when layering on the eventual arrival of autonomous vehicles."  Self-driving technology holds the potential to dramatically reduce parking needs, reduce the cost of delivery, and easily carry shoppers to more desirable locations, like a walkable downtown area, where shopping is more of "experience."  However, the first thing makers of self-driving technology will have to do is get over users' queasiness about autonomous vehicles and make them safer.  Be that as it may, the more desirable retail locations will be in a better position to withstand the coming retail-pocalypse, based on the template's projections.  Suburban strip malls and big-box stores with acreage  dedicated to parking, could end up worse off.

Jason Sudy, a panel co-presenter, said,

In markets like Columbus, which are already ready to deliver tons of stuff fast, overbuilt retail space might not die out in slow atrophy.... It could be a calamitous collapse.

This could result a lot of very visible retail blight dotting the suburban highway corridors.  Most important, it creates a troubling financial picture for communities that rely on retail for much needed tax dollars (theatlantic.com; May 23, 2017; date accessed Mar. 19, 2018)--"not only from the lost stores themselves but also from the potential devaluation of surrounding properties."  The Columbus, Ohio metropolitan regions has about four percent of gross leasable area in the "most vulnerable" category, according to Messr. Stein, Sudy, and Robbin's estimates.  Go to the map at citylab.com; March 8, 2018 where you can see the areas in red indicate the most susceptible while the green areas are the least.  Consider this, "If all of those properties flooded the real estate market at once, land values would flipped on their heads."  Mr. Sudy said, 

Already, we don't collect enough taxes to pay for fire services., the infrastructure, and all the stuff we have to do.

Using the city of Atlanta, Georgia as an example, "six percent of GLA is ripe to flip."

The Stein, Sudy, Robbins presentation focused on the Columbus area, where they are based.  Their model is just a model.  "It's based on an imperfect mix of data, and a number of assumptions about the future--for example, that AVs will be uniformly adopted at all, without other interventions from transit agencies or other technologies."  Drones are an example of equally disruptive forces as autonomous vehicles.  Further, one-hour or less delivery may not be as close as Rick Stien would like to believe.  Panel co-presenter Kelly Rula said, We don't really know what the next five years will look like.   

Kelly Rula was recently hired by the Seattle Department of Transportation to work on new mobility, climate, and urban freight issues after working on final mile delivery for Amazon Prime.

Subtracting AVs from the equation, it become quite clear that a storm on the horizon.  Laura Bliss writes, "With taxable land already over-allocated to retail and parking, changing shopping habits, and ever-faster delivery, self-driving cars will only accelerate the changes already happening."  Communities are not exactly ready for what is here, as well as what is ahead: "more empty buildings, a harder economic punch from the lost retail and heavier road I pats of increased goods delivery."

Justin Robbins said, "At the very least, new developments should be future-proofed against blight and hits to tax revenue.  Essentially,

Don't build any parking garages you can't adapt to other uses.... Create internal rids and roadways on large new developments, so that you can fill in as things change.

To mitigate transportation map acts, Kelly Rula suffered that "cities could follow Seattle's example by studying food movements, testing dedicated loading zones and sensor-enabled curbs, and looking at road pricing to mitigate added deliveries, in additions to human trips." 

Communities might want to consider adaptive reuse of vacant retail space as it becomes available.  Can dead and dying malls be reused for housing, museums, or office space?

Whatever the case, Mr. Stein told CityLab, "cities anticipating and preparing for the future are more likely to come out winners. Those who aren't--perhaps by dint of their economic inability to plan ahead--could be choking on the fumes."

Rick Stein used this analogy,

Technology is like wate,.... If you don't channel it where you want it to go, it spills all over the place.   

   

Designing With Security In Mind

http://www.wsj.com; March 13, 2018

Hello Everyone:

This morning, while scanning the news, a well written article written by Tawnell D. Hobbs in The Wall Street Journal, titled "Designing a School to Stop Shooters," caught Blogger's attention.  The article profiles the brand new George W. Bush Elementary School in the affluent neighborhood of St. Paul, Dallas, Texas.  The enhanced safety measures are intentionally designed into the plan in order to stop a would-be school shooter.  As is the usual case following a school shooting, there are calls for arming teachers, increased mental health and school safety spending, et cetera ad infinitum.  However, what gets overlooked, admittedly Blogger did this too, is how to build schools that incorporate enhanced security features so that the possibility of a mass school shooting can be mitigated.  Bush Elementary School is not the only school to design in safety features however, it is done in such a way that does not detract from its warmth.  Let us take a look at what measures were built into the George W. Bush Elementary School.

The first thing a visitor notices when approaching the Bush Elementary School is the sparse landscape and windows facing the street.  This affords administrators and staff a clear view of who or what is coming toward the school.  Entering the school is a multi-step process.  Ms. Hobbs explains, "Visitors enter a vestibule and must be buzzed inside the main office.  From there, a government-issued ID must be scanned through a system call the 'Raptor,' which alerts for child molestors and anyone flagged to keep out."  Blogger experienced something similar over the summer, going to an appointment on the west side of Los Angeles.  It is a minor hassle and one would be well advised to allow for extra time.

Another noticeable element at George W. Bush Elementary School are the wide corridors, devoid of any niches or alcoves, making it harder to hide from the omni-present video surveillance.  The video footage is watched by school administrators and police in patrol cars.

Ian Halperin, the spokesperson for the Wylie Independent School District where the Bush Elementary School is located, told The Journal, Every time there's a school shooting, we try to learn something from them.  The district does conduct regular lock down drills, full time security officers receive regular live shooter training and have strong ties to local enforcement, "including regular meetings and providing officers with key cards and access codes so they can rapidly enter schools.  

The above design elements and procedures are increasingly typical (wsj.com; May 21, 2015; date accessed) in the 98,000 across the United States in response to growing concerns about how to stop a would-shooter(s) (Ibid; Feb. 23, 2018) and improve school safety, especially after the Valentine's Day (Ibid; Feb. 15, 2018) shooting that left 17 people dead.

Tawnell D. Hobbs reports, "Since 1990, there have 32 shootings in schools [Ibid] where at least three people were killed or injured according to a Wall Street Journal review [Ibid]."  That is an average of one school shooting per year.  That is one shooting too many.  There is no rhyme or reason for it.  You cannot point to a particular locale or reason why it is what it is.  The only thing you can do is try learn from each occurrence and plan for it, which is what the Bush Elementary School and the 97,999 other schools are trying to do.  The students and their allies are not waiting around for the next shooting, they are taking to the streets.  Tomorrow, students around the nation are expected to take part in anti-gun violence protests (Ibid; Mar. 13, 2018).  Please support them whether or not you are a parent, teacher, administrator, school staff member, own a gun or not.

It is not just the Bush Elementary School that is designing in safety measures.  Ms. Hobbs writes, "School administrators are pairing law-enforcement personnel or safety experts with architectural firms to design new campus and renovate older ones."

For example, a school opened last year in Quincy, Illinois.  Superintendent Roy Webb told The Journal "which allow a security officer to lock down building sections with a push of a button.,  He said, We can mitigate a lot of risks.

 Last week, Florida Governor Rick Scott signed into law (Ibid) a bill that commits $400 million toward school safety and mental-health services.  Minnesota's governor is following suit, asking the state legislature to set aside $20.9 million, meanwhile Maryland's governor is earmarking $175 for improvements such as panic buttons, security camera, funding for school resource officers and counselors.  Federal efforts to increase school security are also in process (Ibid. Mar.9, 2018).

These greater push to increase school security does come with this caveat.  Ronald Stephens, executive director of the National School Safet Center in California, told Ms. Hobbs,

When you have someone who's a committed shooter, they're going to find a way to get on the campus.... I just tell schools to do everything you can.

Wise words.

In the meantime, the George W. Bush Elementary School is the picture of happy calm.  The corridors are decorated with student artwork and inspirational messages.  The students move in an orderly fashion, single file, passing the big presidential seal in the foyer, under the watchful gaze of discreetly placed security camera.  Principal Maricela Helm is pleased with campus.  She is happy that the security measures do not take away from the warm and inviting atmosphere of the school, which opened in 2016 with room for 900 students.  She told The Journal, We've developed a good culture while being more alert, more ready.

        

Blogger Candidate Forum: Which Side Are The Cities On?

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Blogger Candidate Forum: What To Expect When You Run For Office

Hello Everyone:

Time for the weekly edition of Blogger Candidate Forum.  Silly season is upon us.  It is officially the midterm election cycle.  Between the newly arrived primary season and November's general election, we will be bombarded with pleas from congressional and gubernatorial candidates, from parties, for our vote. Yours Truly would like to focus on a couple subjects: What to expect and what the candidates should do if they want to be successful.  Before we get going, Blogger wants to apologize for not posting yesterday.  Blogger had a massive headache and a swollen eye (Yours Truly poked herself in the eye trying to fish out a contact lense).  The combined to make writing impossible.  Onward and upward.

First of all, what should we expect in the 2018 midterms?  We can expect a lot between now and November.  The short answer is the success or failure of a particular party will depend on how the country feels about Mr. Donald Trump and a variety of issues.  In their Brookings Institution article "The Primaries Project: What to expect in the 2018 Midterm," (brookings.edu; Mar. 5, 2018; date accessed Mar. 7, 2018) Elaine Kamarck and Alexander Podkul write, "These primaries will also tell us a great deal about the divisions within each political party, and about what we can expect from the Congress that will convene in 2019."

The Brookings Primaries Project (Ibid) will be examining and presenting real facts as we make our way through the season.  Taking a look at the political landscape, the Republicans incumbents are facing increased competition from their Democratic challengers from two important sources.  The co-authors report, "...many more Republicans incumbents are being primaried (i.e. challenged) by well-funded opponents from their own party.  Second, in a telling measure, there are many more competitive Democratic primaries in Republican-held, in a telling measure, there are many more competitive Democratic primaries in Republican-held districts than competitive Republican primaries in Democratic-held districts."  Competitive elections can emanate from more higher-quality candidates.  This attracts media attention.  Thus, more Repbulican incumbents will have to face better-funded challengers and better-funded and test general elections rivals who can garner media attention-something incumbents dread.  Further, there are over twice as many Republican retirements as Democratic retirement in the House of Representives-an indication that members are leaving because they believe it is going to be a bad year for their party.

As of today, it is all speculation and not much agreement on the possible outcomes.  If you cruise the social media, hashtags #bluewave and #bluetsunami, are pretty popular.  The implication being that the Democrats will take over Congress and be a "powerful counterforce to President Trump."  Others seem to believe that the "blue wave" will not be as strong because of  healthy economy and the tendency for Democrats to shoot themselves in their collective feet.  Before we look forward, it is helpful to take a look back at what the 2014 and 2016 (Ibid; Sept. 2014) (Ibid; Jan. 2017) primaries revealed.

      

The co-authors write, "The status of the horse isn't the only revealing element of congressional primaries, however.  Studying the candidates who are running in these primaries also tells us a great deal about the division within and between the political parties.  Here is what the co-authors found studying 2014 and 2016:

House incumbents were consistently re-nominated (only three sitting members lost a primary in 2014 and only five lost in 2016)

Progressive Democratics candidates made up nearly 30 percent of Democratic primary candidates in 2016.

Conservative Republicans candidates made up 50 percent of Republican primary candidates in 2016.

The top issues mentioned by Republican candidates in 2016 were taxes, Obamacare, immigration, debt, and the Second Amendment while top issues for Democratic candidates were Obamacare, Social Security, education, the minimum wage, and climate change.

Primary margins of victory for incumbents have been consistent across the past two cycles with median margins near 50 percent for Republicans and near 65 percent for Democrats...

In 2016 a presidential primary year [we wrote] "The drama in the presidential primaries, however, has not been mirrored in the congressional primaries.  [While we] see more divisiveness at the congressional level among Repbulicans than among Democrats, the levels are small...

In addition to studying the congressional candidates in 2016, the co-authored looked at the voters in congressional primaries.  In their paper (Ibid; Jan. 2017), the co-authors asked the question, Are primary voters different?  Sort of, here is what they found:

Republican voters were more likely to say that they chose to support their preferred House candidate because that candidate "shares my values" or "can bring about needed change" while Democratic voters were more likely to support a candidate who "has the right experience" or "cares about people like me"

On demographics, we found primary voters to be older and more educated than the general public.

What can we learn from the two previous cycles?  We learn that "the congressional primaries were nearly predictive of what happened in Congress."  One glaring lesson we learned from the 2016 congressional election is "Republican majorities were focused on two issues that were at the top of the agenda form most congressional primary candidates: passing a tax cut bill, on which they succeeded, and repealing Obamacare, which they failed."  Additionally, as the Republican Party continues to fall under the control of the very conservative Republicans, the Democratic caucuses have taken on a more moderate tone.  However, Elaine Kamarck and Alexander Podkul caution, "Both of which could have been anticipated from the factional divisions apparent in the congressional primaries."

What can we expect this year?  For the Republicans, pay attention to what degree "Trumpism"--"sharing the president's issue positions and attitudes toward government"--has filtered down to the congressional primary level.  Who are the Trump mini-me running in this year's primaries and how successful they wil be, particularly how successful they will be against more mainstream Repbulican candidates.  For the Democrats, the key thing to watch is the resurgence of the progressives--a byproduct of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) near-successful run for president in 2016.  Look for whether or not there more self-proclaimed progressives running and whether they are specifically aligning themselves with Sen. Sanders and his movement.

Both the Democratic and Repbulican parties are big enough to accommodate multiple points of view. Over the next several months we will look at how specific issues are filtered through multiple perspectives and at some of the races.  Speaking of candidates, what will it take to win a seat in the Senate or House of Representatives?

The formula is simple, tell the voters about yourself.  Voters want to know about you, where you come from, what motivated you to run.  Be your real self.  While this may annoy some campaign managers but voters will relate to you being you, instead of some blow dried candidate.  Tell your constituents what you stand for and how that separates you from the pack.  We want to know how your positions will translate into policy.  Can you connect them to our values.  One big do not do is make your campaign about the president.  Yes, the scandal plagued Trump administration is front and center but your campaign is not a referendum on the administration.  These are just Blogger's suggestion, hopefully some one will pay attention.      

          

                 

He Said The "G" Word

http://www.citylab.com: November 7, 2017

Hello Everyone:

Recently former-President Barack Obama got himself in a very awkward position.  Pres. Obama is in the process of building his almost-requisite presidential library on the South Side of Chicago. At a February 27th community meeting, for his proposed library, he took a question about gentrification.  His short answer was,

I know that I heard a couple people saying 'Well. We're concerned about maybe rents might go up.'  Well here's the thing.  If you go into some neighborhoods in Chicago where there are no jobs, no businesses and nothing's going on, in some cases the rent's pretty cheap.  But our kids are Los getting shot on that block.  So what I want to do is make sure people have jobs, kids have opportunity, the school have a better tax base and if the rent goes up a little bit, people can pay it because they've got more money.  If they're seniors, if they're seniors if they're on fixed incomes, if they're disabled, then we need to make sure there's a process in place to encourage and plan for affordable housing to be constructed.

But here's the thing I will say, I think a lot of times people get nervous about gentrification, and under stably so...It is not my experience...that the big problem on the South Side has been too much development, too much economic activity, too many people being displaced...

To see the full video, you can log on Twitter to check out the audience's reaction. The audience laughs with him as the former president makes his points.  However, his longer answer--also on Twitter--as to why he does not want to sign on to a community benefits agreement got a more muted response.

Jeanette Taylor needs a more affordable place to live.  Curtis Lawrence reports in his CityLab article, "Hope and Change Collide on the South Side," Seven years ago, Jeanette Taylor moved from the South Side Chicago neighborhood of Bronzeville.... Her Bronzeville unit was going to be rehabbed, the rent tripling... Now Taylor fears her family may be uprooted again.  In 2021, the Obama Presidential Center, an estimate $500 million library campus...slated to open in nearby Jackson Park..."

Ms. Taylor expressed her concerns about the economic impact of the center, did others in the Woodlawn neighborhood near where Ms Taylor lives, to CityLab, The minute they announced the Obama Library was coming here, I was like, 'What am I going to do?  

 The concerns over the center, dedicated to the nation's first African American president, seems to be puzzling to people who do not live in Chicago.  Mr. Lawrence writes, "After all, the city--and the South Side in particular--is very much Obama country."  In 1985, Barack Obama arrived in Chicago to work as a community organizer.  MIchelle Obama (née Robinson) was raised in the South Side.  The proposed library is anticipated to bring a major shot of much needed investment to the community: "According to the Obama Foundation, the center will have a $339 million economic impact during construction, and $177 million annually from the three-building campus once it opens."  One economic estimate by The Foundation predicted the center would create nearly "5,000 jobs during construction and about 2,500 jobs after it opens, projecting a total economic impact of $3.1 billion through its first decade."

However as the project progress, anxiety over gentrification in the community that is already uneasy about an encroaching University of Chicago to the north has sparked debate among the residents and others over the positives of the center in Woodlawn.  Curtis Lawrence asks, "Will it be the villain in another take of dislocation and gentrification?  Or will it be a national model for how residents can play a significant part in developing a center that welcomes innovative businesses and improves the lives of its neighbors?"

The OPC made history in May 2017, when the plans were first revealed.  One of the architects is a woman, Billie Tsien of the firm Tod Williams Billie Tsien, and it would be the first presidential library to be located in an "urban, predominantly black neighborhood increasing the stakes both for the community and the former president." When completed, "The center will occupy the northwest section of the 543-acre park designed by Frederick Law Olmsted and site of the 1893 Columbian Exposition."  In addition to the library itself, which will be home to the digital archive of the president's non-classified records, the center will also house a museum, meeting spaces, restaurants, and a garden.

Former Pres. Obama and his advisers emphasize its importance as a much-needed engine for community renewal.  Mr. Lawrence reports, "Woodlawn's population is now at about 24,150 according to the 2015 Census snapshot by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning."  This is massive decline in the population from a high of 81,279 in 1960, the Encyclopedia of Chicago says.  Recently, the neighborhood seems to be on the rebound, partly due to the proposed library.  Mr. Lawrence reports, "The real estate website Redfin picked Woodlawn as the city's second-hottest neighborhood for 2017."       

The debate over the center has uncovered "sometimes-conflicting hopes for a pocket of the city that is still shedding the residue of disinvestment, racism, and poverty."

For Jeanette Taylor, it is matter of making a stand against displacement.  Ms. Taylor is an education organizer for the Kenwood Oakland Community Organization and one of the leaders in the task force arguing for a Community Benefits Agreement (citylab.com; Sept. 18, 2017; date accessed Mar. 6, 2018), a legal document that guarantees neighborhood participation in development projects.  These types of agreements have been successful in communities from Los Angeles to New York City.  One example: "In 2008, the Pittsburgh Penguins hockey team built an arena in the Hill District [pghcitypaper.com; May 15, 2008; Mar. 6, 2018], a neighborhood that was once the city's black cultural center."  In this case, the CBA for the arena outlined wage requirements and required developers to commit $8.3 million in neighborhood improvements, including a food market and youth center.

You would think that Obama Foundation would be on board with a CBA, right?  Well, no, they are not. The former president has called CBAs a useful tool, in previous comments, but maintained that, as a non-profit, We are bringing money to the community. Recently, The Foundation announced that it is looking for a diversity consultant to enforce minority contracting and employment.

Jeanette Taylor looks askance at the important player in the OPC story, in particular, the University of Chicago, which will administer the programs with it.  She asks,

How many times have we been played about everything that comes to this community that's supposed to be for us, that's not supposed to push us out?

Former President Barack and First Lady Michelle Obama have a considerable history with the University of Chicago.  They own a home in the upscale Kenwood, just north of the university where the former president taught constitutional law for nearly a decade before he was elected to the United States Senate in 2004.  Mrs. Obama served as the university medical center's vice-president for community and external affairs until 2009, when she resigned shortly before The President's first inauguration.

The university has a mixed reputation among the South Side communities.  In his book, Making the Second Ghetto, historian Arnold R. Hirsch chronicles the university's support of restrictive covenants, intended to restrict the number of African Americans living near it.  Mr. Hirsch and his team of researchers uncovered earlier university attempts to keep development within the Hyde Park boundaries, "while economic life was sucked from adjacent Woodlawn."

Dominic Pacyga, an urban historian and retired professor from Columbia College, told CityLab,

There's been a long history of people from Woodlawn not trusting the University of Chicago,.... The university was the boogeyman.

University of Chicago spokesperson Marielle Sainvilus sent CityLab an email that "didn't directly address the university's history with Woodlawn or its position on a CBA, but touted the university's support for affordable housing and economic development through its Office of Civic Engagement and work with groups such as the nonprofit developer Preservation of Affordable Housing."  Further, the UChicago Local has partnered with local business owners with contracts at the university and its medical center; the unemployed and underemployed on the South Side with job opportunities.

Curtis Lawrence writes, "Despite such assurances, Woodlawn lawyer and activist Naomi Davis firmly believes that a CBA is essential for making sure those jobs go to local residents.  Ms. Davis told CityLab,

If we don't have a system for recording what people promised, and holding them to account for it, then what if they don't do what they said they were going to do?

Ms. Davis moved to Woodlawn in 2010 with her organization, Black in Green, which is committed "to ensure that low-income residents on the South Side are fairly compensated in property takings, among other issues.  She continues,

I was looking for a neighborhood like the one I grew up in...

Woodlawn is a modern day rarity: "African-American communities..."

...where you could walk to work, walk to shop, walk to learn, and walk to play had gone extinct in my lifetime.

When Ms. Davis is not working in one of the community gardens or hunched over maps, she attends Community Benefits Agreement meetings, where she is joined by an ever-expanding coalition of organizations including: the Chicago Teachers Union and Service Employees International Union Health Care Illinois/Indiana.

Janet Smith, the co-director and associate professor at the Natalie P. Voorhees Center for Neighborhood and Community Improvement at the University of Illinois, Chicago, said, "A specific jobs commitment and training for building and staffing jobs are crucial,...."  Mr. Lawrence speculates, "A CBA also could include rent stabilization and property tax relief, so homeowners don't get hit with soaring bills as housing values rise."  Ms. Smith, a CBA network consultant, told CityLab,

If it happens in such a way that my taxes go up or my rent goes up and I can't afford to stay, then that's wrong,...

Not every Woodlawn residents is on board with the CBA: "Longtime neighborhood power broker Rev. Byron Brazier,..., thinks it isn't necessary."  Rev. Brazier told CityLab, Woodlawn was creating its own plan before the library got here....

The Rev. Brazier cites two specific community redevelopment intiatives--the Network of Woodlawn (thenetworkofwoodlawn.org; date accessed Mar. 12, 2018), a collaborative launched in 2012 and 1Woodlawn (1woodlawn.com; date access Mar. 12, 2018), established in 2015.  Both programs are focused on safety, education, and health issues, can be an engine for neighborhood priorities in future developments.  

The newest member in the already crowded field of community engagement groups is a still anonymous non-profit that was created with $250,000 seed money from the Chicago Community Trust, a local foundation that also funded 1Woodlawn.  Former (real) U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan and Sherman Wright, managing partner of marketing communication and advertising firm Ten 35, are the co-chairs of this still unnamed 25-person organization, "which is designed to ensure the struggling communities surrounding the center benefit form new investments."  However, some community activists perceive this as an attempt to placate or silence them.

Naomi Davis, also a member of the new committee, believe that this will not happen to her.  Ms.Davis was chosen by the Obama Foudnation, the University of Chicago, the Obama Presidential Center, and stakeholders.  She is definitely aware of the community champions who have been co-opted for other purposes--she vows never to stray from her commitment to the Community Benefits Agreement.  She concludes, They understood what they were getting.        

  

Chocolate City

http://www.citylab.com; February 16, 2018

Hello Everyone:

Who watched The Oscars yesterday?  Blogger sat down to watch the annual Hollywood pat on the back festival.  One of Yours Truly's favorite moments was Tiffany Haddish and Maya Rudolph walking out, heels in hand, wearing a pair of Uggs slippers.  Totally relatable.  Blogger wants the slippers.  Blogger is happy to report that she guessed accurately in all of the main categories, except Best Picture.  Yours Truly said Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri would win the big prize, The Shape of Water walked away with the big prize.

That said, Blogger is still feeling in a cinematic mood and decided to dip her pedicured toes into the Marvel universe.  Marvel as in the comics, in this case the Marvel mega-hit Black Panther.  There is no denying that Black Panther is not only a box office success but has become a global cultural phenomena.  The timing of the movie is auspicious because, as Brentin Mock writes in his CityLab article "Wakanda: The Chocolatest City," "Marvel Studios' Black Panther lands amid an intense discussion around what it means for African Americans to have their own safe space [theatlantic.com; Nov. 19, 2015; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018] or sanctuary [citylab.com; Feb. 16, 2017; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018], in a country built on their exploitation, during a time of nativist influenza.  Further, the movie comes at a point in time when the phenom called "Chocolate City"--"a city where African Americans constitute the majority of residents and are its political and economic leaders--may be in its last days."  The nation's capital, Washington D.C. was once the model (citylab.com; Sept. 7, 2016; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018), dubbed the "capital" of every Chocolate City by funk legends George Clinton and Bernie Worrell, who coined the phrase in a song in 1975 (rollingstone.com; June 24, 2016; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018).  However, by 2011 Washington lost its African American majority (Ibid) and was losing its hold on the Chocolate title.

In her 2012 book (amazon.com; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018) Go-Go Live: The Musical Life and Death of a Chocolate City, Nathalie Hopkinson wrote:

When you happen to be born black in a world designed for white people, to live a Chocolate City is to taste an unquantifiable richness.  It gives a unique angle of vision, an alternative lens to see world power.

Mr. Mock writes, "This would describe Wakanda [vulture.com; Feb. 15, 2018; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018] , the fictional African nation that is the homeland of Marvel superhero Black Panther, in spades." Wakanda is featured front and centered in the movie (theatlantic.com; Feb. 14, 2018;; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018), which is based on the studio's first black superhero, introduced in 1966.  Most of the movie's action takes place in the capital city of Birnin Zana, The Golden City, which is hidden away from the rest of the world, "buried inside a mountain n the country's otherwise rural topography."  The cloaked city is the pinnacle of a Chocolate City--a "black Xanadu that looks plucked out of the wildest, trippiest dreams of Marion Berry,...," the controversial former mayor of Washington.

Recent demographic and policy shifts in cities like Washington have led to some to pronounce that Chocolate City has melted (nytimes.com; June 23, 20132; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018).  Derek Hyra wrote that Washington D.C. has become cappuccino city (citylab.com; May 15, 2017; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018) while the Brookings Institution's Andre Perry have been shouting long live the Chocolate City (Ibid; Oct. 24, 2017).  Mr. Mock writes, "The critical questions for those in the school of Chocolate City preservation are: What does it mean to maintain a Chocolate City in an age of globalization?  What is the leadership model for growing a Chocolate City?  Can Chocolate Cities sufficiently provide sanctuary for their black inhabitants?  And even: Why does it matter [citylab.com; Dec. 8, 2017; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018] whether we have Chocolate Cities in the first place?"

Black Panther makes an effort to answer all of these questions.  Spoilers ahead, stop reading if you have not seen the movie.  The movie is centered around the main character, King T'Challa (Black Panther) who is tasked with ruling and safeguarding Wakanda, which is considered the most technologically advanced nation.  Its reputation largely stems from the development of its native resource vibranuium, which can alter sound and energy, is stronger than steel, and in nearly infinite supply--only in Wakanda.  This vital resources has provided Wakanda with immense source of prosperity and security, "as it is used to fortify its architecture and the weapons and armour of its military."

Also, Wakanda maintains its security by remaining completely sovereign, accountable to its own rulers, Ned is entirely self-sufficient.  Wakanda is not anxious to open its doors to foreigners.

Brentin Mock warns, "That kind of protectionism should not be conflated with the extreme nativism [Ibid; Jan. 25, 2018] seen today from the Trump camp."  Although Wakanda is a fictional place, the story is founded in the real world of the audience.  Mr. Mock points out, "...Wakanda's closed borders are a response to the colonialism and white supremacism that plundered and destroyed the wealth and abundance of natural resources found throughout the rest of the continent of Africa.  Wakanda is also aware of the enslavement and terrorization of Africans in the Americans.  Its foreign policy is formulated around avoiding similar fates."

Thus, for these reasons, Wakanda has fashioned itself as the "ultimate Chocolate City, or Chocolate Country, if you will--a place where black people can live free of racial humiliation and exploitation, and prosper in the process."  Unsullied by colonialism and free of anti-black racism, the Wakandans are free to dream and aspire, hence its technological superiority.  Since its resources has not been feasted upon by outside forces, Wakandans can be self sustaining and reap the benefits of its gross domestic product, mainly power by vibranuium.  Never ones to pass up a chance to inject some humour, comedians took to Twitter to come up with a few of the amenities of Wakanda with the #InWakanda meme.

Wakanda is not an ordinary technocracy, or a glorified concrete jungle.  It's leadership is democratically determined as well as skill and might.  In a flyover scene, "Wakanda is designed as a place where silicon and metals are woven into the natural landscape of trees and mountains for its buildings."  Pedestrians populate the streets of Wakanda's urban centers.  Shuttles glide through the urban streets on advanced maglev tracks, and elegantly designed dragonfly shaped spaceships fly through the skyline.

Brentin Mock speculates, "Perhaps some form of e-commerce exists, but merchants still sell their goods and wares in the streets, hand-to-hand."  Its customs and traditions have been preserved, out of the Caucasian gaze.  He asks, "If you've ever wondered what kind of innovation and wealth black people could produce had they never been subjected to the decimating forces of colonialism, slavery, lynching, Jim Crow, mass incarceration, second-class citizenship, and segregation, Wakanda is it."

The problem is Wakanda IS segregated by race and geography, from the rest of the world, and this situation does have its drawbacks.  Since it is isolated from its global neighbors, it is oblivious of how nations have come together, evolved, and learned to respond to threats.  More to the point, Wakandans are also isolated from how their counterparts are suffering without their borders.

The most idealist view about what a Chocolate City means tends to be situated on the advantages of self-sufficiency, less on the perils of isolation.  Black Panther's Wakanda presents the case for and against this kind of exclusivity; asking the audience to draw their own conclusion.  For those who follow the pro-argument, Wakanda provides the template for "What means to maintain and protect that kind of chocolate enterprise."

Comparing Wakanda to a real life Chocolate City is pointless because Wakanda is a fictional place.  However, if a Chocolate City leader wants to use the Wakanda blueprint, he or she would have to determine what is their city's vibranuium and how it can be leveraged.  Said leader would have to figure out how to engage with with individuals outside the Chocolate City border--a problem that T'Challa wrestles with throughout the movie.

T'Challa is encourage to engage in international trade talks and provide assistance to other struggling countries, something he is hesitant to break tradition to do.  At one point in the movie, T'Challa says,

If we let the outside world in, they will find out who we really are, and we will lose our way of life.

Real life Chocolate Cities do not have the luxury of wrestling with this conundrum.  They, like every city across the United States, exist at the caprice of the state.  Mr. Mock reports, "In 1969, civil rights activist Floyd McKissick tried building a Chocolate City called Soul City in North Carolina [Ibid; Nov. 6, 2015], which he planned as a municipality that out would be owned,operated, and inhabited mostly African Americans."  Mr. McKissick was motivated by visions of black power based on black capitalism, also he envisioned Soul City "as a place where black people could live, work , and play free of racism."  Yet, he needed federal start-up funds, as well as investment capital and firm commitments from employers to operate it.  His plans smoothly hummed along until the political winds shifted changed directions (Ibid; Nov. 13, 2015) and the federal government withdrew funding, leading to its cancellation.   Sorry, vibranuium could not protect it.

Brentin Mock points out, "This is one of the toughest challenges of the black city: They can't live on black bread alone.  There is no grand demiurge that can create and fortify a city on the soul and sounds of blackness."  Be that as it may, Andre Perry of the Brookings Institution argues that "...black cities can succeed with the right kind of investment,"

Building upon assets in majority-black cities is an approach that we have yet significantly try...There are valuable assets in black communities that developers, economists, and urbanists genuinely don't consider--ew just need to locate and forge a better understanding of what those assets are,... (brookings.edu; Oct. 6, 2017; date accessed Mar. 5, 2018)

In short, find and mine the gold--i.e.vibranium.  Not a simple task in the United States where whatever assets African Americans have accumulated have been stolen and stripped away, beginning with the Reconstruction to the current housing current.  Which is why if African Americans did consider polling their resources to build their own sanctuary city and wall it off from the outside world, Wakanda-style, you cannot really blame them.